The next Government will most likely be a Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael coalition propped up by "sensible" independents. 

Although a handful of seats are yet to be filled, it is expected that Fianna Fáil will be the largest party with 48 seats, Fine Gael will have 38 TDs and Sinn Féin will 39 seats. 

With a likely total of 86 seats, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will be within touching distance of the 87 seats needed for a majority in the new Dáil. 

Although Galway West TD Mairéad Farrell believes the party could still end up in Government, Irish Independent Political Correspondent John Downing thinks the numbers are against the party. 

“The figures don’t add up,” he told Breakfast Briefing. 

“Certainly, Sinn Féin went into this election in very bad shape and had, in real terms, a rather good election - given the shape they were in as they entered it. 

“[Government], it’s not going to happen.” 

Mary Lou McDonald arrrives at the count centre in the RDS. Photograph: Leah Farrell / © RollingNews.ie

Following the near total wipeout of the Green Party, attention has turned towards the Labour Party and the Social Democrats are potential Government partners. 

It would be, Mr Downing believes, a “problematic” coalition for several reasons.  

“Things are going to have to be ratified by the membership - whatever deals are made,” he said.  

“The other difficulty is that we have, effectively, two labour parties; there’s the Labour Party and the Social Democrats - which is just another word for a Labour Party - and they’re going to be watching each other like hawks, pushing and over. 

“If one crowd goes in and the other stays out - that’s a recipe for disaster for the crowd who go in.

“The smaller party who goes into a coalition Government is effectively feeding itself into the political mill.” 

Labour Party leader Ivana Bacik celebrates in the RDS Count Centre in Dublin. Photograph: Leon Farrell / © RollingNews.ie

Mr Downing said the loss of so many Green seats would concentrate minds in any party thinking about getting into bed with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. 

“The Green Party, it took them two political cycles to rebuild having exited the coalition in 2011,” he said. 

“They rebuilt, came back and here they are again.”

It’s been a hard weekend for the Greens. The people have spoken and we will learn from the experience as we rebuild.

We’re incredibly proud of our candidates, the effort they gave and all they achieved in government.

A huge thanks to all our supporters. We’ll be back again.

— Green Party Ireland (@greenparty_ie) December 1, 2024

Most likely, he believes, the Government will do a deal with independents they consider “sensible”. 

One independent, Michael Healy-Rae, has already said his phone is "always on" but he " won’t sell my soul" for a deal.

"I have three items to discuss before going into Government with anyone and that’s KERRY, KERRY and KERRY," he wrote on X.

So far, independents have 16 seats.

Main image shows President Higgins with Micheál Martin and Simon Harris. Picture by Leah Farrell/ © RollingNews.ie