EY (formerly Ernst & Young) has issued its latest economic outlook for the Irish economy and it predicts that the Republic will show strong growth in 2014, and that the recovery will continue, but slow down again in 2015.
The accounting firm agrees with the general consensus that the Irish economy will grow by 4.8 percent this year and that this growth will continue, expanding by 3.3 percent in 2015. EY had previously predicted that the economy would grow by 2 percent this year.
Speaking to Ian Guider on Breakfast Business this morning, EY's economic adviser Neil Gibson commented the fall in growth in 2015 is to be expected: "That's not a figure that we should be too concerned about, in fact most economies in the eurozone would be delighted to have that figure, that would keep Ireland at the top of the growth chart".
The report warns against further loosening of the Government's fiscal policy. It remarks that the Republic is, "unlikely to return anytime soon to expansionary budgets" and that there is still a "high government debt which needs to be significantly reduced to a more sustainable level".
The outlook covers the whole of the island of Ireland, and it points out that the economics of the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland are operating in different fiscal environments - as Dublin starts to move away form austerity, Belfast is set to enter a period of cut backs and fiscal tightening.
It also notes that the factors driving growth in the two regions are different. Net trade accounted for 75 percent of growth in the Republic, while consumer spending and business investment made up almost 90 percent of the Britain and Northern Ireland's growth.
This means that the Republic's economy is more dependent on the performance of other economies, and that slowdowns in the UK, the eurozone, and China should have a negative effect on Irish exports in the coming years.
The report also predicts that the Republic will stay near the top of European growth charts and grow faster than the North and the rest of the UK for the next 10 years.
