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Irish manufacturing grows - but can we trust our export numbers?

Irish manufacturing figures continued to rise in November according to the Investec Manufacturing...
Newstalk
Newstalk

10.14 1 Dec 2014


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Irish manufacturing grows - bu...

Irish manufacturing grows - but can we trust our export numbers?

Newstalk
Newstalk

10.14 1 Dec 2014


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Irish manufacturing figures continued to rise in November according to the Investec Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index and exports rose by the fastest rate in over three years. 

The index (where over 50 indicates growth) stood at 56.2 in November - new export orders increased from 54.8 to 59.3 - the highest figure since February 2011.

But when reviewing the figures, it is worth bearing in mind the warnings issued by both the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (IFAC) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), who raised questions over the validity of Irish growth figures because of the high levels of 'contract manufacturing'. 

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This is economic activity that only takes place in Ireland on paper, often for tax avoidance purposes. Dr Donal Donovan of the IFAC said last month that contract manufacturing accounted for 43 percent of the increase in Ireland's GDP during the first half of 2014.

While manufacturing is growing, the rate of the increase is down for the third month in a row. It is impressive that Ireland is still showing growth while economic activity across the euro zone continues to struggle. Increased orders from the UK have helped Irish manufacturing to remain strong.

Dr Donovan suggested that growth figures should be taken with a 'pinch of salt' - which could be true again here. While exports figures might be artificially high - other factors like employment statistics, and an increase in consumer confidence heading towards the end of the year, suggest that the Irish economy is going the right way.


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