For many the prospect of Britain leaving the Europe is a lot like the Scotland leaving the United Kingdom: it is simply never going to happen.
Denis MacShane - former Europe Minister for Britain - however thinks it is quite likely that Britain will leave.
He has written a book Brexit: How Britain Will Leave Europe on the subject, and he joined Vincent Wall in studio on this week's Down to Business to explain his argument.
"Very simply the idea of a referendum," he suggested, "asking the big existential question should we be in or out of Europe... we've had in the last 15-20 years, so many [forces] in Britain... political first of all - the Conservatives, then UKIP... the press, Mr Murdoch's press, the Daily Telegraph, the Daily Mail, constantly pumping out lines against Europe.
Adding that the EU just seems to be 'full of problems' - from the struggling Eurozone to the amount of red tape - Denis suggested he worries that when you get "the chance in a plebiscite to say 'let's call the whole show off', people will.
"I would love to believe that the whole thing will be a mature, serious debate... But when you hear the non-stop moaning and complaining about Europe, this has to have a terrible effect".
He highlighted the latest opinion polls, with one earlier this week showing it was 43% in favour of leaving, 38% for staying. Another polling conference suggested it's dead even at 41%-41%.
On the subject of the organisations campaigning against the prospect of a Brexit, Denis suggested "I just don't see them doing any campaigning".
He says that while there is a lot of support for reform instead of a complete exit - led by David Cameron, who earlier this month outlined his 'demands' for staying within the EU - strong campaigning is equally important.
"All the reforms that the prime minister is asking for are perfectly reasonable in themselves," he argued. "They can be granted. [But] I don't think they'll magic up suddenly this enthusiasm.
"The one thing we learned from the Scottish Referendum was you don't win referendums in the last two or three weeks. And I don't see big business out there fighting to stay in Europe".
And what about Ireland? Should we have a say on the subject?
Denis observed, "I welcome [Enda] Kenny's and [Charlie] Flanagan's positions. I would love to see on every Ryanair jet a giant sign saying 'Brexit means we have to stop flying'. That's an exaggeration, but not entirely one.
"An Irishman telling a Brit what to do, that's not being lectured at - that's in our DNA. I think Ireland can play a huge rule - obviously the direct Irish diaspora who will be able to vote, but also the literally the millions who are linked in to Ireland", he added.
You can listen to the full podcast below:
