There is currently a 2.3% chance that an asteroid strong enough to wipe out Dublin will hit the earth, Astronomy Ireland has warned.
Nasa’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (Cneos) has located an asteroid hurtling in our direction and believes it could make landfall in 2032.
On The Hard Shoulder, Astronomy Ireland’s Dave Moore said scientists “just don’t know for sure” what will happen.
“Ireland could actually be in the firing line,” he said.
“We don’t know exactly if it’ll miss it - it should come close anyway.
“It’ll probably come in over the northern part of South America, then across the Atlantic Ocean and then across Africa - which sounds okay, it misses Ireland.
“But, if it lands in the Atlantic Ocean, there could be a massive tsunami if this thing is as big as 100 metres across.”
While still an extremely low possibility, asteroid 2024 YR4's impact probability with Earth has increased from about 1% to a 2.3% chance on Dec. 22, 2032. As we observe the asteroid more, the impact probability will become better known. More: https://t.co/VWiASTMBDi pic.twitter.com/Z1mpb4UPaC
— NASA Asteroid Watch (@AsteroidWatch) February 7, 2025
Currently, the asteroid is far too far away for scientists to properly assess its size and direction of travel.
“All we can see of this particular asteroid is a tiny blip in a telescope,” Mr Moore said.
“It came close right at the end of December - 100 metres is relatively small… It’s a tiny dot only visible in powerful telescopes.
“That’s one of the problems; we won’t be able to follow it even with the biggest telescopes in the world for more than a few weeks.
“Then it comes back in 2028 - that’s good because we can measure it’s position very accurately and give an exact prediction for four-years after that.
“So, we’re going to have to wait on tenterhooks until then.”
@newstalkfmCould an asteroid trigger a tsunami for Ireland? 🌊☄️Scientists warn of a 2.2% chance of impact in 2032.♬ original sound - Newstalk
Impact on Ireland
Mr Moore added that if it does crash into Ireland then it is “very bad news for the whole country”.
“We had an object in 2013 about 20 metres across - so, as big as a detached house - that hit just outside a major city, the size of Dublin, in Chelyabinsk in Russia,” he said.
“It blew up in the atmosphere well above the ground and everybody saw the flash.
“They all ran indoors and looked out; the shockwaves takes a few minutes to get there and it blew in the windows and injured 1,500 people.
“It didn’t kill anybody but that’s an example of what happens if it happens near a city.”
A meteorite contrail is seen over the Urals city of Chelyabinsk in 2013. Picture by: XINHUA Moscow.This asteroid could be significantly larger and if it hits Dublin, then Mr Moore said the “whole city is gone”.
“The areas near that suffer such severe earthquakes that they’re levelled as well,” he said.
“The whole country is in severe trouble.”
66 million years ago, an asteroid hit the earth with such devastating force that it wiped out the dinosaurs.
Main image: An asteroid near Earth. Picture by: Alamy.com.
