This article originally appeared in Newstalk Magazine for iPad - available now for free from the Apple app store.
In 1964, the brilliant American sci-fi author Isaac Asimov wrote a New York Times article predicting what a 2014 “World’s Fair” would be like. It’s a fun mix of accurate and inaccurate predictions.
For every “Synchronous satellites, hovering in space will make it possible for you to direct-dial any spot on earth”, there’s a “you will be able to reach someone at the moon colonies” or “electroluminescent panels will be in common use. Ceilings and walls will glow softly”. Still, there are some fascinating observations.
“Communications will become sight-sound and you will see as well as hear the person you telephone” — Asimov accurately predicting the rise of video calling, a particularly popular technology among mid-century sci-fi writers.
“As for television, wall screens will have replaced the ordinary [TV] set; but transparent cubes will be making their appearance in which three-dimensional viewing will be possible. In fact, one popular exhibit at the 2014 World's Fair will be such a 3-D TV, built life-size, in which ballet performances will be seen.” 3-D TV might not have taken off, but the resurgence in popularity of 3-D movies in cinemas should please Asimov — despite the fact many viewers had already dismissed it as a gimmick in the 1950s.
“Robots will neither be common nor very good in 2014, but they will be in existence… The I.B.M. building at the 2014 World's Fair may have, as one of its prime exhibits, a robot housemaid: large, clumsy, slow-moving but capable of general picking-up, arranging, cleaning and manipulation of various appliance” — while many authors of his time may have imagined a near future full of robots, Asimov’s more reserved vision is bang-on. Machines are improving [see below video of NASA’s latest robot, Valkyrie], but there’s no sign of a robot revolution yet.
Valkyrie: NASA's Superhero Robot
Asimov wasn’t alone in his future pondering, of course. Here are a few other notable predictions, some accurate, some considerably less so.
Roger Ebert predicts the future of home cinema in 1987
The hugely influential film critic passed away in April 2013, leaving behind huge amounts of fascinating film writing. Not only was he one of the world’s most enthusiastic and knowledgeable cinephiles, he also proved surprisingly accurate when it came to describing future cinematic trends. In 1987, for example, he described a vision of future home viewing to Omni magazine. Bear any resemblance to today’s home technology?
“We will have high-definition, wide-screen television sets,” he claimed, “and a push-button dialing system to order the movie you want at the time you want it. You'll not go to a video store but instead order a movie on demand and then pay for it. Videocassette tapes as we know them now will be obsolete both for showing prerecorded movies and for recording movies. People will record films on 8mm and will play them back using laser-disk/CD technology.” Ebert had effectively predicted the HD era almost two decades before it became a reality, when VHS reigned supreme and the Internet was in its infancy.
Arthur C. Clarke predicts the tablet computer in 1968
Another brilliant sci-fi writer who managed to predict the iPad in his 1968 novel-turned movie, 2001: A Space Odyssey, writing “[Floyd] would plug his foolscap-sized newspad into the ship’s information circuit and scan the latest reports from Earth.
“One by one, he would conjure up the world’s major electronic papers… Switching to the display’s short-term memory, he would hold the front page while he searched the headlines and noted the items that interested him. Each had its own two-digit reference. When he punched that, a postage-sized rectangle would expand till it neatly filled the screen and he could read it with comfort.
2001: A Space Odyssey, Newspad
“When he finished he could flash back to the complete page and select a new subject for detailed examination. Floyd sometimes wondered if the newspad and the fantastic technology behind it was the last word in man’s quest for perfect communications.”
Of course, the book (and iconic film of the same name) also imagines a 2001 of moon-bases, murderous artificial intelligence and manned trips to Saturn. But hey, it made for a damn good story.
Apple predicts the smart-device in 1987
In 1987, Apple released a ‘knowledge navigator’ informational video that imagined a world of tablet computers, voice commands, instant access to global data and video calling. I don’t need to tell you how accurately Apple predicted what would become their most iconic and successful products, even if the imagined devices in the 1987 video look significantly chunkier and quainter than they would eventually turn out to be. They haven’t quite managed to pull off perfect folding displays yet though.
Check out the Knowledge Navigator concept video by Apple (1987) here.
