It is three years to the day since the last result was declared in the 2011 General Election when Fine Gael achieved the party’s best result since its foundation.

As the party gathers in the RDS for its Ard Fheis, their prime focus will be on the Local and European elections at the end of May hoping that these will provide the springboard to an historic second successive term in Government after the next General Election. After three years leading the nation through the worst ever economic crisis Taoiseach Enda Kenny has good grounds for being confident that this goal is within his grasp.

Despite the hardship that the people have had to endure the opinion polls have consistently placed Fine Gael as the most preferred option. There have been eighteen polls in the past six months and Fine Gael has been first in all of them bar one when it tied with Fianna Fail in October.

They have averaged 28% in the six month period and while that is 8% points down on the General Election performance it is a very acceptable outcome given the challenges of returning Ireland to some level of financial stability.

Still ahead despite austerity

Despite significant emigration and high unemployment, property tax, proposed water charges and an unresolved mortgage crisis Fine Gael still lead the race to the largest number of seats in the 32^nd Dail.

The party has also expelled five TD’s and two Senators for opposing the Protection of Life During Pregnancy Act while a 6^th TD, Denis Naughten was also expelled for opposing the downgrading of Roscommon County Hospital. While seven of the expelled members (all but Brian Walsh) have formed the Reform Alliance there has been no discernable impact on the popularity ratings of Fine Gael as reflected in the opinion polls. Indeed four of the last seven polls have recorded Fine Gael at 30% which is the most consistent period of that level of support since autumn 2012.

Many of the delegates this weekend will be eagerly anticipating the appearance on the podium of Justice Minister Alan Shatter. He is not scheduled to speak in the main hall but it is a certainty that the Merrion Room will be standing room only at 2.30 pm. Minister Shatter doesn’t do humble and the GSOC and the related Garda Maurice McCabe issue has seen him at his most trenchant. To many, including I suspect some within his own party, he is regarded as very much a wolf in wolf’s clothing.

Unless any of the forthcoming investigations uncover definitive evidence of inappropriate involvement by Minister Shatter it is unlikely that there will be any negative electoral impact on Fine Gael. Robustness is a characteristic of many of the Fine Gael Ministers as no one would refer to Phil Hogan, Michael Noonan, Leo Varadkar or James Reilly as shrinking violets and while at least two of them would not come top in the popularity stakes, a lot of the heavy lifting in the past three years has been carried out by them.

Rise and fall

However it is not yet a foregone conclusion that Fine Gael will inexorably march to triumph at the next General Election. They will have to ensure that they maintain a delicate balance when dealing with their coalition partners in Government. While Fine Gael have retained a large proportion of their 2011 support, the Labour Party has seen their fortunes plummet. The polls in the last six months has seen their popularity fall by more than half since 2011 and threaten at least twenty of their Dail seats.

A disastrous performance in the upcoming Local and European elections will send shivers down the spines of their TD’s and could be the precursor to a calculated early exit from Government if Fine Gael are not amenable to the introduction of legislation that would assuage Labour supporters. While it would appear that it makes more sense to keep the coalition together for as long as possible so that they can take advantage of the slowly improving economy, a jittery Labour Party might gamble on going to the country on a point of principle in an attempt to save as many seats as possible. In the past few days some Labour TD’s were signalling that the rationalisation of the Post Office network might well be that point of principle that foreshortens the lifetime of the 31^st Dail.

Recovery

There is no guarantee that the exit from the bailout and some signs of economic recovery will have sufficient momentum to impact on the daily lives of the electorate. It is a race against time to ensure that the voters can identify with real rather than technical progress.

The Health Service is another potential banana skin as yet another Minister fails to demonstrate the capacity to effectively manage the delivery of services to those who need them most. Threatening to enforce compulsory insurance charges is a proposal that is hardly likely to win many votes. Support for James Reilly’s plans for Universal Health Insurance will very much depend on whether or not the party faithful judge it to be an issue that will jeopardise the party’s electoral prospects.

Overall though Fine Gael is in a good place and short of some serious own goal are likely to be the largest party post the next General Election and they will dictate the terms of any coalition arrangement as there is no plausible alternative government.