After weeks where it seemed as if a Brexit deal wouldn't happen, EU and UK negotiators today reached an agreement.
The new deal came only hours before European leaders were due to arrive in Brussels for a crucial European Council summit.
An agreement today was essential if Boris Johnson's to live up to his pledge to leave the EU on October 31st - but there's still a ways to go until an orderly Brexit takes place.
Here's what happens next:
Today and tomorrow
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar. Picture by: Stefan Rousseau/PA Archive/PA ImagesAttention will turn to Brussels as leaders arrive for the summit this afternoon.
Leaders are already arriving ahead of the big roundtable discussion at 2:30pm Irish time.
Just arrived at @EPP summit in Brussels with @HMcEntee before today’s @EUCouncil meeting. First up is a bilateral with Greek PM @kmitsotakis who is a great friend of Ireland pic.twitter.com/moDFV5zGCv
— Leo Varadkar (@LeoVaradkar) October 17, 2019
It will be up to the Council members to sign off on the deal agreed between EU and UK negotiators.
However, the European Commission has recommended they pass it - meaning it's likely to get the greenlight. If so, it will then go to the European Parliament for ratification.
The summit will continue tomorrow, with leaders likely hoping they can get the Brexit business sorted early so they can discuss other things as well.
Saturday
European flags are seen fluttering outside Houses of Parliament in Westminster. (Photo by Steve Taylor / SOPA Images/Sipa USA)While the European Council summit will be crucial for the deal to be passed, it's Westminster where the real drama is likely to take place.
On Saturday morning at 9:30am, MPs will gather in the House of Commons for a rare weekend sitting.
Boris Johnson will be back in London after his trip to Brussels, and - assuming the Council signs off on the deal - he'll have a fresh Brexit agreement in tow.
He'll face a tough fight trying to get the deal through, especially since the early indications were that the new deal does not have the approval of the DUP.
Mr Johnson also no longer commands a majority in parliament, after rebel Tory MPs were ejected from the party for their support of the opposition's moves to block a no-deal Brexit.
With opposition groups likely to reject the deal - Labour's Jeremy Corbyn has already described it as "worse than Theresa May's" deal - Mr Johnson will be counting on every vote.
Winning over the DUP in the coming days could be crucial to securing the votes of hardline Tory Brexiteers, while he'll also likely need the votes of at least some of his former party colleagues and some opposition rebels.
It's a tough ask, but not impossible.
If the deal's rejected, then the opposition's legislation demanding he seek a Brexit extension would likely come into force.
Some reports have suggested Mr Johnson could ask EU leaders to agree to rule out a further extension to put pressure on MPs to sign off on the deal.
No 10 source says Johnson will ask leaders to rule out a further delay - he’s expected to ask them to make clear it’s ‘the new deal or no deal but no delays’ he will tell EU leaders
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) October 17, 2019
But his government has indicated they will 'obey the law' if the deal isn't agreed - meaning he'll have to look for an extension. The state of play will become clearer in the coming days.
The rest of October
A member of protocol adjusts the EU and Union flag at EU headquarters in Brussels, Thursday, Oct. 17, 2019. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco)What happens after the weekend all depends on how the next few days go.
If the deal is passed by all parties? Well, the UK looks set to leave the EU with a deal on October 31st. That's Boris Johnson's dream outcome - and EU leaders will be happy to finally see the back of this chapter of Brexit.
If it's rejected? It's anyone's guess what happens next.
In the immediate future, there are a few possible options if the deal doesn't pass: the UK crashes out on October 31st, or the EU agrees to an extension to give the process more time. Alternatively, Boris Johnson could continue to push for a deal in the House of Commons - Theresa May kept trying with her deal, after all, even if she was ultimately unsuccessful.
Given the warnings over how a hard Brexit could play out, most people are keen to avoid that outcome - but it remains a possibility until a deal or delay is signed off.
The future
Voters arrive at a polling station to cast their vote in the European Parliament elections, on May 23, 2019 in Greenwich, South - East London, U.K. (Photo by Claire Doherty/Sipa USA)
Again, much of what happens next depends on how the coming days play out.
If the deal is passed - and also if it's not, most likely - we will be into election season.
A UK election is imminent, although it could be early next year given Boris Johnson's government is likely to want to avoid causing disruption at Christmas time.
Similarly, an Irish election is very much on the cards in the coming months. The Taoiseach has publicly insisted on May 2020 as his preferred election date, but domestic and international factors could encourage him to go to the polls earlier.
If the deal doesn't pass, again we're into unknown territory.
Opposition parties in the UK are pushing for a second Brexit referendum - if they win power from the Conservatives, then they'll likely seek another new deal with the EU before putting it to a public vote (with 'Remain' an option).
Opposition red lines are very different than the Conservatives', so they'd likely be seeking a very different deal with the EU - such as a more wide-ranging customs union.
The Tories, meanwhile, would be keen to regain a majority in parliament to push through the deal. If they don't secure that, then again we'd likely be looking at a second referendum or a no-deal scenario.
In any case, this is far from the end of the Brexit process.
This new deal, even if passed, isn't the end of the process by a long shot - there will still be trade talks and agreements to work out, and the political declaration will need to be expanded and formalised during the transition period.
Regardless of how the coming days play out, you will be hearing a lot more about Brexit for years to come...
