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Budget 2025: Why Ireland's economic success 'is not a bubble'

It comes ahead of next week's budget with a Government surplus of some €25bn - a sharp contrast with our neighbours in France and the UK
Jack Quann
Jack Quann

15.36 29 Sep 2024


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Budget 2025: Why Ireland's eco...

Budget 2025: Why Ireland's economic success 'is not a bubble'

Jack Quann
Jack Quann

15.36 29 Sep 2024


Share this article


Ireland's economic success and impending giveaway budget is 'not a bubble', a leading economist has said.

It comes ahead of next week's budget with a Government surplus of some €25bn.

The figure contrasts sharply with other European Union countries, as well as the UK, where belt-tightening measures are being implemented.

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Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA) Chief Economist Dan O'Brien told The Anton Savage Show that Ireland is in a very unique position.

"As somebody who works for an international affairs think-tank and talks to people in other countries it is just so remarkably different how our conversation is going on here," he said.

"If we look at our neighbours in Britain it's huge controversies about cutting pensioners winter fuel allowances.

"In France the new Prime Minister - a man we know well - Michel Barnier is worried about becoming the next Liz Truss they have so little money."

Euro banknotes in a person's pocket, 26-3-08. Euro banknotes in a person's pocket, 26-3-08. Image: imageBROKER.com GmbH & Co. KG / Alamy

Mr O'Brien said Ireland's spending is very different to our neighbours.

"Every country in Europe, pretty much, is on their uppers and it's back to discussions about austerity," he said.

"Any money that exists needs to go into defence spending because of the threat of Russia.

"We're sitting off in this island in the middle of the Atlantic, money is flowing in - nothing can go wrong - happy days.

"It's a really different situation here".

'Not a bubble'

Mr O'Brien said he is 'emphatic' that the situation is not an economic bubble waiting to burst.

"There is not a bubble - people are not indebted, banks haven't lent too much," he said.

"It is not like last time nor is the Government spending as crazily as they did in 2004 to 2007.

"I'm not worried about some sort of imminent collapse... [but] it's so different from the rest of our continent".

Mr O'Brien said the situation is the result of several factors.

"Our foreign direct investment policy of attracting companies from abroad has worked in a miraculous way beyond what anyone could ever have anticipated," he said.

"Nobody would have thought that we would have picked the two perfect industries - pharmaceuticals, which are recession-proof, and tech which is taking over the world.

"These are two super-charged engines we have strapped on to an economy that until the 1990s was the laggard for 120 years."

'Off the charts'

Mr O'Brien said the two sectors are still "burning at white-hot speed".

"They are generating jobs [for] hundreds of thousands of people - both directly and indirectly - in these sectors," he said.

"They're generating incredible exports and of course they're generating tens of billions in tax.

"This Government has collected €120bn in corporation tax - that is just off the charts compared to our peers."

He added that Ireland's resilience on profit taxes "is a vulnerability" but is also the reason why Ireland is having the conversation about a giveaway budget.

Listen back here:

Main image: IIEA Chief Economist Dan O'Brien speaking about Budget 2025 on The Anton Savage Show, 29-9-24. Image: Newstalk 

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Budget Budget 2025 Dan O'Brien Economic Bubble Economy Foreign Direct Investment IIEA Indebted Institute Of International And European Affairs Ireland Michel Barnier Pharmaceuticals Tech The Anton Savage Show Winter Fuel Allowance

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