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Central Bank warns of "substantial and permanent" economic impact of no deal Brexit

Ireland's economic growth will be "significantly" affected in the event of a no deal Brexit, the ...
Newstalk
Newstalk

07.07 25 Jan 2019


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Central Bank warns of &#34...

Central Bank warns of "substantial and permanent" economic impact of no deal Brexit

Newstalk
Newstalk

07.07 25 Jan 2019


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Ireland's economic growth will be "significantly" affected in the event of a no deal Brexit, the Central Bank has warned.

It's warning that growth could fall by as much as 6% in the years ahead.

In its first Quarterly Bulletin for the year ahead, the Central Bank is predicting economic growth to continue, but at a slower rate than last year - down from 5.5% to 4.4%.

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However, it says that a disorderly Brexit in March could lead to a dramatic drop over one year, with a future decrease over the next decade.

The regulator highlights that the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal is the worst case scenario for Ireland.

It says the development would "permeate all areas of economic activity" here - from consumer spending and the labour market to public finances and financial markets.

It concludes that disorderly Brexit would result in a "substantial and permanent" impact, adding: "In the long run, it is likely that the Irish economy would adjust to the new arrangements but the short-run challenges would be immense."

Mark Cassidy, Director of Economics and Statistics at the Central Bank, explained that a no deal scenario would have long-term implications.

He said: "We still think a Brexit deal is the most likely outcome, and that is reflected in our new economic forecasts - which are for further strong output and jobs growth.

"There's still a risk of a no deal scenario. This would very significantly reduce overall growth - we think by around 4% in the first year, and by around 6% over the longer term."

Despite this potential decrease, the regulator still expects employment and growth to remain positive overall.

A further decline in the unemployment rate to 4.9% is projected this year, while a drop to 4.7% is then expected by 2020.


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