It is now “very clear” where Ireland’s coronavirus figures are going but the expected surge at the country’s hospitals “doesn’t have to happen,” according to the Chief Clinical Officer.

The 506 new COVID-19 cases announced this evening have taken Ireland’s national total past 40,000.

That came after health officials warned that we are now in a “phase of exponential growth” – with hospital admissions, intensive care admission and deaths all expected to rise in the coming weeks.

On The Hard Shoulder this evening, HSE Chief Clinical Officer (CCO) Dr Colm Henry said he is “certainly concerned” about the rising figures but insisted we can still protect our hospitals if we take the right steps now.

“Fortunately, we have learned a lot since March and April,” he said. “We have learned much more about the behaviour of the virus and we are testing much greater numbers.

“Our capacity to identify cases that we were onto identifying earlier in the year is much greater now.

“We have a much greater handle on risk and we can see the storm from further away than we could in March and April.

“I can describe to you, and I will describe to you what efforts we take once we face a surge situation but I have to say, it doesn’t have to be the case.

"It doesn't have to be the case," @CcoHse says compliance with public health advice could avoid hospitals being overwhelmed.@TheHardShoulder pic.twitter.com/sGzTDAxLfw

— NewstalkFM (@NewstalkFM) October 8, 2020

“If people comply; if they comply with the mask wearing in appropriate situations, if they wash their hands – which people are forgetting to do – if people comply with social distancing, if they reduce their contacts, if all those congregated indoor settings we know act as super spreader events, if people don’t engage in that, it doesn’t have to happen.

“We do not have to overrun our hospitals or put pressure on our intensive care units.”

A healthcare worker at an intensive care unit, 06-10-2020. Image: AP Photo/Manu Fernandez

Dr Henry said the health service has added 23 extra intensive care beds to the system since the outbreak began – 248 of which are currently occupied.

“It is important for listeners to note that, while it might sound like a small increase, this is what it says on the box, it is intensive care, it is a system of care, not just a bed,” he said.

“It is trained, expert staff, working round the clock providing multi-organ support – often ventilation or dialysis or even assisted cardiac support – to people who are critically ill.”

The Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan returns to the Department of Health for a COVID-19 briefing, 07-10-2020. Image: Leon Farrell/RollingNews

He warned that, if the figures continue to grow unchecked, we will be seeing around 400 new COVID-19 hospital admissions every day by the end of the first week of November.

He said some of those will require intensive care and, as a result, hospitals will have to create capacity by cancelling other surgeries.

He also expressed hope that behaviours are already changing among some groups in recent months.

“Among those who are most vulnerable to the virus, we are seeing behavioural change,” he said.

“They are protecting themselves and maybe we are protecting them and bit better – even if some parts of the population don’t.

“So that linear link between cases and translation to illness and unfortunately death is somewhat blunted by the behaviour of people who are most afraid and have every reason to be afraid.”

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