The DUP are preparing themselves for losses that will likely see Sinn Féin emerge as the largest party in next month's Stormont Assembly election - dealing a decisive blow to unionist morale in the province. 

Loyalists are furious that since Britain’s exit from the EU goods entering Northern Ireland from England, Wales and Scotland are now subject to custom checks. Consequently, DUP support has haemorrhaged to the hardline TUV party and the many MLAs are privately pondering what they will do once they lose their seat in next month’s election.

“The DUP are quite willing to confirm that the doorstep reception is not what it used to be and they’re admitting that,” journalist Alex Kane told On The Record with Gavan Reilly. 

“And I know they’re having difficulties, partly having worked for the Ulster Unionist Party, I remember the difficulties we had and why the DUP were able to eclipse it and I think a lot of the problems that we had back then, they’re having right now.” 

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First Minister Michelle O'Neill?

Should Sinn Féin win the highest number of seats - providing power sharing is restored - Michelle O’Neil would be entitled to hold the position of First Minister of Northern Ireland. 

Such an outcome would be a crippling blow to unionism’s morale; never before has a nationalist emerged as the most important political figure in a province specifically designed to maintain a unionist rule in perpetuity. 

However, Mr Kane believes it is not quite a done deal quite yet: 

“Technically Sinn Féin could still emerge as the largest single party in terms of overall votes,” he continued. 

“But if the unionists do their transfers properly, if they get their act together [and] all three or four unionist parties involved in the election manage to go from their first preference right the way through, it’s still possible that the final outcome will be much, much closer than people think. 

“So close in fact that it is just possible that the DUP could nip ahead one extra seat.” 

DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson speaks to the media outside Parliament Buildings in Stormont, Northern Ireland. Picture by: PA Images/Alamy Stock Photo/David Young

Inevitably, talk of a Sinn Féin win has meant that there is talk of a border poll and a 32 county republic. But commentator David McCann says the union is more durable than nationalists would like: 

“We have crossed many rubicons before in Northern Ireland,” he said. 

“How many times have we heard, ‘Oh well if this happens the union will.’ 

“We heard that about One Man One Vote, we heard that about power sharing altogether in the 1970s, we heard that about north-south bodies. 

“These things came and went and last time I checked Northern Ireland is still in the United Kingdom.”

A Royal difference

While in practice the position of First Minister is equal in power to that of Deputy First Minister - the title does give the officer holder enhanced prestige. 

“The Sinn Féin Vice President, Michelle O’Neill, will get to meet the Queen first,” Mr McCann added somewhat gleefully. 

“And that’s the dream of every Sinn Féin leader! That’s a protocol difference.

“But it’s a joint office; Michelle O’Neill has no more power the day after than she did the day before.”

Main image: Graffiti reading 'No Irish Sea border' near Belfast City centre in February 2021. Picture by: PA Images / Alamy Stock Photo