This weekend’s French election was a crushing rejection” for Marine Le Pen – and President Emmanuel Macron.
That’s according to France-based journalist John Lichfield who was speaking after the second and final round of National Assembly elections.
The poll saw the far-right National Rally and its allies pushed back into third place with 143 seats - following a surge in turnout at the second time of asking.
Emmanuel Macron’s Together Alliance won 168 seats, with the left-wing New Popular Front alliance coming out in front with 182.
The result meant a sigh of relief in many European capitals which feared a Le Pen victory, given her history of euroscepticism and support for Putin.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk tweeted, “In Paris enthusiasm, in Moscow disappointment, in Kyiv relief. Enough to be happy in Warsaw.”
In Paris enthusiasm, in Moscow disappointment, in Kyiv relief. Enough to be happy in Warsaw.
— Donald Tusk (@donaldtusk) July 7, 2024
There are still, however, lingering worries about the post-election influence of far-left leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who also has little love for the European project and backed Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014.
On Newstalk Breakfast, France based journalist John Lichfield said he was still “trying to make sense of it” but it is clear the results are a disappointment to Ms Le Pen.
“It’s been a crushing rejection for her finally,” he said.
“It may seem odd to say that because she’s increased her number of seats by 60 or 70.
“But this is the third time that she’s come apparently to the brink of power in the two Presidential elections in ‘17 and ‘22.
“Each time the French people have revolted against the idea of Government by the populist, nationalist, racist - despite their denials - anti-European, pro-Russian far-right.
“It seems to me this may be the most damaging of those rejections because they thought that they got really to the point of power - or close to it.”
A voté. pic.twitter.com/UR625RHqXH
— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) July 7, 2024
No party has an overall majority and Mr Lichfield predicted it means French politics will enter an era of instability with such a diverse range of political parties represented in the National Assembly.
“This is an alliance of four different left-wing parties that range from the very, very hard-left anti-capitalist Trotskyist, France Unbowed, and much more moderate communist, socialist, green parties,” he said.
“I don’t think that alliance is going to survive very long.
“The far-left part of it is claiming that because it has a few more seats than the others in the left delegation… they should have the next Prime Minister.
“Not going to happen - but their whole attitude is to be as destructive and cause as much confusion as possible.”
🏛 La XVIIe législature se prépare !
💼 Accueil, premiers pas au Palais-Bourbon, photo officielle : l'Assemblée nationale est prête pour accueillir les députés nouvellement élus.#DirectAN pic.twitter.com/mpWKrqYwZX
— Assemblée nationale (@AssembleeNat) July 8, 2024
Since the creation of the Fourth French Republic in 1958, one party has usually enjoyed a majority in the National Assembly.
It means there is no recent history of coalition building and Mr Lichfield believes it will take months for a Prime Minister to be chosen.
“It happens in Belgium, it happens in Italy sometimes, in Germany and Switzerland all the time,” he said.
“It doesn’t happen here; it hasn’t happened since the Fourth Republic which ended in 1958… We’re in for probably weeks, maybe months, of negotiations.”
'A great loser'
Ultimately, Mr Lichfield said a coalition of the left and centre-left is likely to emerge but that President Macron will find it difficult to adapt to the reality of a multi-party Government.
“President Emmanuel Macron has to accept that he is a great loser last night as well,” he said.
“Although the far-right was beaten back, he essentially has been rejected by the French people as much as Marine Le Pen has.
“Therefore, he has to accept that the next Prime Minister has a lot more freedom to impose his or her own policies.”
Another election to the French National Assembly cannot take place for a further 12 months.
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Main image: Marine Le Pen. Image by: Alamy.com
