The French far-right are on the cusp of power for the first time since the Second World War.
Following poor election results in last month’s European election, President Macron shocked France by dissolving the National Assembly and calling fresh Parliamentary elections.
Mr Macron described it at the time as the “most responsible solution” but his electoral gamble seems to have failed.
In the first round of the election on Sunday, Mr Macron’s Together coalition placed third with 20% of the vote.
The left-wing New Popular Front received 28% and the far-right National Rally bloc led by Marine Le Pen won 33%.
Speaking to Newstalk Breakfast, French journalist Cole Stangler described the results as unsurprising.
“If you look at the score that they [the far-right] were able to achieve, it’s more or less in line with what the polls said,” Mr Stangler said.
“It doesn’t make it any less shocking, I think, for a lot of French people.
“The far-right has a real chance, depending on what happens next Sunday, of governing the country for the first time since the Vichy regime in World War Two.”
Emmanuel Macron.A second round will take place this Sunday; any candidate who received 12.5% in the first round qualifies for a place on the ballot and the person with the most votes in each constituency is then elected a Deputy in the National Assembly.
Discussions between the centre and the left on how best to stop Le Pen and her party remain ongoing.
“Now the question is, do those left wing candidates withdraw to support the centre candidates?” Mr Stangler said.
“Then inversely, do the centre candidates, the Macroniste bloc, do they withdraw and support the left?
“Right now, we seem to be heading towards that type of scenario.”
An anti-far-right pact?
Although both the left and the centre want to stop the far-right, there is a queasiness among some in Macron’s camp about endorsing certain left-wing candidates.
The leader of La France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, is one such candidate; the 72-year-old socialist has previously been accused of antisemitism - a charge he denies.
“We’ve seen some prominent Macronist say, ‘Yes, in all cases Macron’s candidates should step down when in third and let the left win,’” Mr Stangler said.
“Yet other prominent Macronists have said, ‘Well, maybe this should be on a case by case basis; it depends on the candidate and on the party.’”
Je remercie les électeurs de ma circonscription qui me renouvellent leur confiance en me réélisant dès le premier tour avec 58% des voix.
L’objectif désormais : obtenir dimanche prochain une majorité absolue à l’Assemblée nationale.
Merci à tous ! pic.twitter.com/w3qNdcUrLZ
— Marine Le Pen (@MLP_officiel) June 30, 2024
Exit polls suggest the far-right could still fail to win an absolute majority of seats in the National Assembly on Sunday.
However if they do, Mr Macron will be constitutionally obligated to ask the 28-year-old Parliamentary leader of Le Pen’s National Rally, Jordan Bardella, to serve as his Prime Minister.
In power, the National Rally hopes to restrict social welfare payments to French citizens and ban dual citizens from working in a number of jobs.
They have also called for people under 30 to be exempt from paying income tax.
Foreign policy and matters pertaining to national defence will remain the perogative of the French President.
Main image: Marine Le Pen. Picture by: Alamy.com
