The reaction to a post General Election exit poll putting the main three Irish political parties within 1.5% of each other has been widespread.
Ballot boxes will not open at count centres across the country until 9am today, but judging by exit polls, the fight for the fourth and final seats in a majority of constituencies will be tight.
A joint exit poll conducted by Ipsos B&A on behalf of RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin polled approximately 5,000 voters across 250 polling stations.
The poll suggests support for Sinn Féin is at 21.1% while Fine Gael is at 21%.
Fianna Fáil is just behind with 19.5% of the vote, according to the poll.
Social Democrats have emerged as the largest of the smaller parties, receiving 5.8% of first preference votes.
Labour received 5%, the Green Party received 4%, People Before Profit-Solidarity received 3.1%, Aontú received 3.6%, Independents received 12.7%, Independent Ireland received 2.2% while others received 1.9%.
An exit poll on second preference votes puts Sinn Féin slightly lower at 17% than Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael tied at 20%.
In this instance, Independents are at 14%, Labour 6%, Social Democrats at 5%, People Before Profit Solidarity 4%, the Green Party at 3%, Aontú 3% Independent Ireland 3%, with others at 2%.
View this post on Instagram
Revealing the first preference exit poll results last night RTÉ’s Katie Hannon said she thinks Fine Gael will be “relieved” to see themselves at 21%.
She said looking at the exit poll results, she could see the same coalition that just left the Dáil coming back in to the Dáil with “maybe a little extra help”.
RTÉ’s David McCullagh said Social Democrats and Aontú will be “very happy” with their positioning.
“I think it was noticeable during the debates, on Upfront and elsewhere, that Peadar Tóibín was very affective at getting his message across,” he said.
The Irish Times’ Jennifer Bray said she think Simon Harris will be the happiest with the exit poll results.
“I think it’s fascinating that none of the big parties have managed to move the dial enough since 2020 to convince people to even get anywhere near a majority,” she said.
Ms Bray said that looking at the figures, you would have to think that “the most likely coalition” would be Fianna Fáil, Fianna Gael, Labour and the Social Democrats.
Elsewhere, Newstalk’s political correspondent Sean Defoe has said the exit poll split could lead to a “fragmented Dáil”.
“The results aren't all that dissimilar to the last General Election and it will be absolute scraps across the country between the three largest parties for the fourth and final seats in constituencies that will ultimately decide the makeup of the next Dáil and the makeup of the next Government,” he said.
Across social media, there seems to be a collective dissapointment in the tightness of the exit polls.
However, it is still all to play for as votes have not begun being counted across the country.
Newstalk reporters will be at count centres around Ireland bringing you all the results as they come in.
We will also be running election specials throughout today and tomorrow, and you can follow all the action on our live blog and on our social channels.
Main image shows (left to right) Micheál Martin, Mary Lou McDonald and Simon Harris during the final TV leaders' debate. 26/11/24. Image: RollingNews.ie
