There are signs that Kamala Harris “has some momentum” as the US Presidential Election enters its final hours.
Tomorrow, Americans go to the polls and will choose either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to serve as the 47th President of the United States.
The respected FiveThirtyEight polling website calculates that Mr Trump has a 53% chance of winning and Ms Harris has a 47% chance of victory.
On Newstalk Breakfast, The Guardian’s Washington Bureau Chief David Smith described it as “incredibly tight” in battleground states and said the result is “very hard to predict”.
“Some pundits I talk to say only a fool would really predict anything with certainty,” he said.
“There may be a few little clues that Kamala Harris has some momentum going into the final day.
“There was an interesting opinion poll over the weekend, not from a battleground state but from Iowa - where Harris had a three point lead.
“I think many believe she won’t win Iowa in the end but that could indicate things are moving in her direction.”
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In 2016, Mr Trump shocked much of the world when he defied the odds and the polls by beating Hillary Clinton to the White House.
Mr Smith said this triggered a “crisis” in the polling industry and there are still concerns about accuracy eight-years on.
“In the 2022 midterms, it was Democrats who were underestimated,” he said.
“So, we’re not quite sure which way this is going to go.”
A Harris victory?
In 2020, Mr Trump refused to accept Joe Biden’s victory and to this day spreads false claims that the election was “stolen”.
Over the weekend, he told a rally that he “shouldn’t have left” the White House and Mr Smith said Democrats remain ‘anxious’ about what the fallout will be from a second loss.
“Certainly, my experience of going to the campaign rallies of Harris and Trump is that when you meet the diehard supporters, they’re pretty convinced their side is going to win,” he said.
“Especially the Trump base because he has been telling them for a long time that he’s certain to win this.
“They just can’t contemplate the prospect of defeat.”
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Overall, Mr Smith said the atmosphere in America is “fairly negative”, with hostility on both sides towards the other.
“To me, it feels like two trains hurtling towards each other, gathering speed and certain to crash,” he said.
“Nearly half the country is going to feel crushed and devastated.”
The view from Florida
Once a key battleground state, Florida has increasingly swung towards the Republican Party in recent years and there is little doubt the Sunshine State will vote for Mr Trump tomorrow.
Despite this, Newstalk reporter Josh Crosbie found doubts that Mr Trump will be back in the White House in January.
“Am I confident? No,” one local man told him.
“I don’t like the media; it’s just destroyed Trump basically.
“They don’t say nothing about what [Harris] is going to do - nothing.
“I’m a registered Democrat but I won’t vote for her.”
Despite this, his confidence in the electoral process had grown since 2020.
“I didn’t trust it last time but I think it looks a lot better this time,” he said.
The Hard Shoulder will be broadcasting live from New York this week and Newstalk is hosting a special US election night special from 10pm on Tuesday.
Main image: Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris. Picture by: AP Photo/Paul Sancya.
