One factor influencing the timing of the next election could be Simon Harris’ desire to visit the White House on St Patrick’s Day. 

Earlier today, the Taoiseach once again ruled out an election this year - something he has done consistently since taking office. 

Calling an election is a decision only the Taoiseach can make and despite Mr Harris’ public pronouncements, many people in Leinster House are “convinced” it will be November. 

One journalist who has his doubts is the Daily Mail’s John Lee. 

“There’s no distinction between what they’re saying publicly and what they’re saying in private,” he told The Hard Shoulder. 

“I don’t think Roderic O’Gorman will have as much say Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will because they’re very reliant on each other post-election anyway to re-enter power. 

“I firmly believe… they will decide the week after the Budget - that’s the way high-level politicians do [things]. 

“They’ll look at the majority they get for that budget; if it’s somewhere around the 19 majority that Simon Harris got to be elected Taoiseach, they might well stay. 

“The other thing to watch is the speed which the Finance Bill then moves through the Oireachtas; if that starts to happen very quickly, then expect an early election.” 

Tánaiste Micheal Martin, Taoiseach Simon Harris and Minister Eamon Ryan. Photograph: Sasko Lazarov / © RollingNews.ie

It is understood that Mr Harris has told his aides he is “determined” to stay on till March - the last possible moment an election can be called. 

“If only for the little reason that he might go to the White House - which is big deal for a political junkie like he is,” Mr Lee explained.  

“If they go early, they’re in good shape to be re-elected but two things apply then. 

“If it’s a rotating Taoiseach, Fianna Fáil will go first again - Micheál Martin would return. 

“Simon Harris, given the vagaries of politics, is not guaranteed to ever return to the office of Taoiseach.” 

While Fine Gael is feeling confident about the election, Mr Lee described Sinn Féin as in “something of a freefall when it comes to popularity in comparison to where they were in 2020.” 

One recent poll put the party in third place at 18% - a steep drop since 2022 when they were polling in the mid-30s. 

“There is a feeling in Government that they don’t see that abating, they think things are only going to get worse for Sinn Féin,” Mr Lee.  

A Dáil election must be held at least once every five years.

Main image: Simon Harris. Picture by: Alamy.com