Fianna Fáil – glass half full or glass half empty? The once mighty party convenes in Killarney for its Ard Fheis this weekend three years on from its electoral humiliation. Things could be better for the Soldiers of Destiny. Then again, things most certainly could be worse.
The positives first: Fianna Fáil, while perhaps not thriving, is alive and kicking. That’s something that could not have been guaranteed after the 2011 General Election. The sense of freefall is gone and Fianna Fáil is (somewhat) comfortably the second most popular party in opinion polls - up from its meagre 17.4% vote three years ago, and not that far behind Fine Gael.
Party figures point out that over a quarter of candidates in the upcoming local elections are first-timers – a decent sprinkling of new talent – and that in Dublin, 30% of those on the ticket are women.
They also say that canvassing is going well. The fury that was there towards Fianna Fáil has abated. Candidates are apparently getting a decent welcome on the doorsteps and the core party vote that had abandoned it in 2011 is coming back. Their canvass, they claim, suggests support levels of 27-28%. That’s five or six points higher than in the opinion polls, but it is in keeping with Fianna Fáil’s performance in the most recent by-elections.
There are however just as many, if not more, negatives. Yes, support has stabilised. But after hitting the early 20s in opinion polls within a year of losing power, Fianna Fáil has now become becalmed at that level. That is causing a huge amount of frustration among members, so used to Fianna Fáil being top dogs.
And the parliamentary party is not a particularly happy camp. Being on the opposition benches – as Fine Gael and Labour found for much of the previous 24 years – is no fun.
While Micheál Martin’s quite centralised style of leadership – he relies on a small number of advisors – is a source of some resentment. The split in the party over the abortion legislation last year left Martin somewhat bruised and hasn’t helped in terms of building a unified team.
Fianna Fáil is also constantly looking over its shoulder at Sinn Fein. Senior party figures freely admit Sinn Fein is going to perform very strongly in the upcoming elections – particularly in the Euro elections where it should win a seat in each of the three constituencies.
Those elections will be a massive test of where Fianna Fáil is now. The problem for the party is that its 2009 local election results was nowhere near as bad as its performance two years later in the general election. It got 25% of the vote five years ago, which the party might be doing well to replicate.
The rebalancing of seats to reflect population shifts could hurt Fianna Fáil in rural heartlands, though it should boost its chance of taking seats in Dublin, where the party currently has no TDs.
Dublin will also be a key battleground in the Euro elections. It will be a huge boost for Fianna Fáil if Mary Fitzpatrick can take one of the three seats.
It’s a big ask. Fianna Fáil’s recovery in Dublin has been painfully slow and Fitzpatrick’s profile remains relatively low. However, she is a good candidate and the word is the party is going to spend a shed-load of cash on the campaign in the capital – money is critically important in Euro elections as a means of building profile.
The other positive is that the race is wide open. Brian Hayes is guaranteed to win a seat for Fine Gael but after that it’s any two from Fitzpatrick, Labour’s Emer Costello, Paul Murphy of the Socialist Party, Lynn Ni Bhaoigheallain of Sinn Fein, Green Party leader Eamon Ryan and former MEP Nessa Childers.
Sinn Fein should take the left-wing seat and it might be between Ryan, Fitzpatrick and Costello for the final place. At the very least, a strong performance from Fianna Fáil is required.
That’s not to say Micheál Martin’s leadership is under any undue pressure. His links with the ‘ancien régime’ will always be a problem. But he is an excellent media performer and particularly appeals to female voters. Barring a disastrous election result in May, Martin will lead Fianna Fáil into the next general election.
And that’s the right call. There’s nobody in the parliamentary party remotely ready to step into his shoes - and nobody credible who wants to.
While the frustration at being stalled in the polls is understandable, the reality is that there were always going to be setbacks on the road to recovery. Enda Kenny and Fine Gael found that back in 2002. Poll results were frequently disappointing. But Kenny and his team concentrated on rebuilding the organisation and sourcing new, young candidates to fill the void left by the general election wipe-out. That ultimately led back to power.
But it took Fine Gael two terms to do so and the reality is it’s going to be the same for Fianna Fáil. Government next time around looks unattainable but a target of 40-45 seats in two years’ time is a realistic goal. There’s a long way to go to get to that point. But, as of now, Micheál Martin has the party pretty much where it should be, all things considered. On balance, the glass is probably half full.
