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'It's completely random' - Statistician dismisses calls for Lotto investigation

The draw has rolled over 47 times since the start of June
Jack Quann
Jack Quann

07.50 1 Dec 2021


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'It's completely random' - Sta...

'It's completely random' - Statistician dismisses calls for Lotto investigation

Jack Quann
Jack Quann

07.50 1 Dec 2021


Share this article


One statistician says calls for an investigation into why the National Lotto jackpot hasn't been won in so long are unfounded.

The draw has rolled over 47 times since the start of June - a phenomenon Dr Michael Cronin says has odds of 1,500 to one.

It comes as a Fine Gael TD suggested there needs to be an urgent "audit and investigation of the National Lottery draw", as the current jackpot seems to be going on forever.

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Last month, Bernard Durkan told Newstalk: "That the lottery main prize is being carried over week after week and month after month.

"It may be only a coincidence - something that would normally happen in the course of a draw. But the National Lottery is based on legislation… and it's important that the public interest and confidence is retained at all times.

"We need to be absolutely certain about the integrity of the process."

Dr Michael Cronin is head of statistics at the School of Mathematical Sciences at University College Cork (UCC).

He told Newstalk Breakfast the number of rollovers makes no difference to the odds of winning.

"The odds of an event of 1,500 to one is pretty small, it's a relatively rare event.

"But given that the Lottery is drawn twice a week... it's not surprising that we get a sequence of rollovers like this.

"And it's important to remember that the lottery machine itself doesn't have a memory.

"And so even though its rolled over 47 times, it doesn't make any difference to tonight's draw - for example.

"So your odds of winning on a single ticket tonight are still 10.7 million to one.

"They haven't increased or they haven't decreased".

Dr Cronin says there are other odds, comparable to the Lotto rollover.

"If you rolled a dice four times, the odds of getting a six four times are about 1,300 to one - which is the same realm as the sequence we're seeing here.

"Or if you picked a person at random, the chance that they were born on February 29th is about 1,400 to one - again the same realm.

"These events in themselves are a little unusual, but given the amount of people we have - given the number of times you can potentially role a dice - it's not surprising to see these sequences of these events."

And he says calls for an investigation into the Lotto system are unnecessary.

"It's completely random, there's no evidence of anything untoward happening".

'It's completely random' - Statistician dismisses calls for Lotto investigation

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Main image: [Not pictured] Fine Gael leader Leo Varadkar stands behind the glass globe with Lotto balls on the set of the National Lotto in RTÉ Studios in August 2017 to mark the 30th anniversary of the National Lottery. Picture by: Sam Boal/Rollingews.ie

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Bernard Durkan Dr Michael Cronin Investigation Lotto Jackpot National Lotto Jackpot Newstalk Breakfast Odds Rollover Jackpot

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