The announcement of an early budget is the “clearest sign that you could ever get” that Government is planning to hold an election in November, according to Ivan Yates.

Finance Minister Jack Chambers this morning confirmed that Budget 2024 will be brought forward by one week to October 1st – but claimed the change is not a sign of an early election.

Standing in for Pat Kenny on Newstalk this morning, former Fine Gael minister Ivan Yates said he expects to see an election called for either the 1st or the 15th of November.

He said the news comes as the Government tries to take advantage of the bumper Exchequer return figures announced yesterday.

“They're awash with money and, Jack Chambers, the new Finance Minister, incidentally says, ‘Oh, by the way, the Budget is not the 8th of October, It's Tuesday the 1st of October,” he said.

“The clearest sign that you could ever get that they are actively planning the election campaign.”

Junior Minister Jack Chambers arriving for Cabinet meeting in Avondale House, Co. Wicklow, 06-09-2023. Image: PA Images / Alamy

He said the Government will aim to “clear the decks” before the Dáil rises for the summer break with politicians “effectively in campaign mode” as soon as they come back in September.

“Looking at the potential dates, I don't believe that they will get the Finance Bill enacted before [the Budget] – that isn't absolutely necessary.

“It's necessary by the 1st of January, but not by then.

“I think the polling day, if you look at the options for a four-week campaign, is either Friday, the 1st of November or the 15th of November.”

"The clearest sign that you could ever get that they are actively planning the election campaign." Ivan Yates reacts to the announcement of an early budget, on @PatKennyNT. pic.twitter.com/7Py73DPqQS

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Also on the show, The Irish Times Political Editor Pat Leahy said he expects to see the General Election called for either the 8th or the 15th of November.

“I think the 1st of November is a little early for two reasons,” he said.

“One, you're still in the mid-term break and lots of people may be away – maybe more Fianna Fáil Fine Gael voters are likely to be away for the mid-term break.

“Secondly, there's the small matter of another election taking place in the United States on the 4th of November.

“One of the theories knocking around Government that I've heard is that, if there's a Trump win in that election on the 4th of November, then maybe there's the possibility of a sort of a ‘flight to safety’ amongst voters in the aftermath of that, which might benefit an incumbent Government.

“So, I think the eighth or the 15th is more likely than the 1st.”

He said it would be “almost an act of political self-harm for the Government not to dissolve in October and go in November”.

He said ministers will continue to claim that the Government will run its full term into 2025 for as long as possible in order to avoid endless questions about election dates.