The results of the Local and European elections in June are better predictors for the General Election that any opinion poll, Ivan Yates has said.

The President has officially dissolved the 33rd Dáil, paving the way for the General Election to be held on November 29th.

On Moncrieff today, former Fine Gael minister Ivan Yates said that parties can’t expect to hold the seats of newly retired ministers.

“Fianna Fáil had 248 councillors elected, Fine Gael had 245 – they'd be fancying their chances,” said Mr Yates.

“Fine Gael are devastated by the succession.

“Take Róisín Shortall or Catherine Murphy,” he continued. In February of 2023 the two announced that they would step down as co-leaders of the Social Democrats party.

“They can’t guarantee that their ‘pony’ will get [votes] - succession is very hard to manage in any party.”

As of October, 18 Fine Gael TD’s have announced they will not be running for re-election – more than half of the party’s 33 ministers.

Voting by habit

“People do vote a little bit by habit – but I’m predicting there will be 50 new faces,” Mr Yates said.

“Partly because there's fourteen more TD’s, there's four more constituencies – but it is complex.”

The rise in the number of TDs is a constitutional requirement; Bunreacht na hÉireann mandates there should be one TD for every 20,000 to 30,000 citizens.

Mr Yates ad Sean Defoe will be covering the General Election in their new podcast ‘Calling It’. The first episode is available to listen here.