Ireland is heading for a general election in November, Ivan Yates has said.
The broadcaster and former Fine Gael minister said local elections next weekend are 'more significant' than they would normally be.
He believes Independents are likely to play a big role on local councils.
Voting in the local elections will be held on Friday June 7th with 949 councillors to be elected across 166 electoral areas.
People will also be voting for MEPs to represent them in Brussels on the same day.
Mr Yates told The Anton Savage Show people are putting personality over party.
"Every poll I look at, everyone I talk to out on the hustings, the only people with momentum are Independents," he said.
"Let's be clear: in a local and European election you're much more likely to vote for a personality, a candidature, that is either local or that you like the cut of their jib.
"People who might be normally Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil [or] Sinn Féin might drift away and see it as less disloyal now".
'Greens facing wipeout'
Mr Yates said he believes Independents in the council elections could reach 300.
"Fianna Fáil [at] 270, they'd be doing well to keep the losses within 60/70; Fine Gael would be doing well to get 200," he said.
"Sinn Féin I think will go up to 150.
"I think the Greens are facing wipeout - I think they could lose both their MEPs".
General election
Mr Yates said he expects a general election to be called in the coming months.
"I think four TDs or so will be elected, [which] means by-elections will have to held on the 8th of December," he said.
"The general election will be held before that - so we're looking at a November election.
"This is like the first part of a two-part play and that makes these elections more significant than they would normally be".
Ballot boxes before they go out to voting stations, 22-2-16. Image: RollingNews.ieMr Yates said he can't remember seeing politics so fragmented as it is now.
"If you picture back to 2019, even 2020, we'd come through the crash and there was successive years of growth of recovery," he said.
"We've had three sort of serious belts: the pandemic, the impact on the cost of living from the Ukrainian crisis - particularly energy prices - and our nearest neighbour being in recession from Brexit.
"People aren't in a great mood".
Referendums
Mr Yates said people showed their unhappiness earlier this year in referendums on Care and Family.
"The most interesting thing about this election is because we've had no election since the spring for four years," he said.
"We found with the referendums, when you do ask the audience, they're in a completely different place than pollsters and the political bubble had them.
"Nobody saw, in some boxes, [the result was] 8:1 No/No - that tells you they're in pretty bad humour," he added.
He said that "nothing" would surprise him in the results.
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