The next pandemic will likely be another flu virus – and it’s smart to start preparing, according to biochemist Professor Luke O’Neill. 

There have been 700 million cases of COVID-19 since 2020 and 7 million deaths. 

While the World Health Organisation (WHO) has ruled that COVID-19 is no longer an emergency, Prof O’Neill said people would be “foolish not to get ready for the next one”. 

“And surely [we have] learnt from the previous one, in terms of making sure that the next time it isn't quite so bad to avoid the dreaded lockdowns,” he told Show Me the Science. 

“[We must] protect people who might be vulnerable to the next pandemic, so it's a very, very important and active area of research.” 

A new pandemic?

A new VACCELERATE Consortium survey found that among 187 infectious diseases experts, 57% believe the next pandemic will be a flu virus. 

According to Cologne University’s Jon Salmanton-García , the belief that influenza is the largest threat is based on long-term research on its evolution. 

Prof O’Neill explained the WHO recently issued a statement about the H5N1 flu variant, typically found in birds. 

“Very often these flu viruses love birds, they live in birds,” he said. 

“There was a huge pandemic in the bird population caused by an H5N1 variant.” 

The spread of a new virus

Research has now shown the H5N1 variant is also found in pigs. 

“Pigs wouldn't be that big a deal – but cattle are a concern,” Prof O’Neill said. 

“It’s been found in cattle in 12 different US states. 

“Rather worryingly again, they found a couple of examples in humans, but it's more of the cattle that's worrying people. 

He explained that the variant has been found to transfer from cattle to cattle – meaning it has the potential to be spread amongst one species. 

“It's hard to predict the chances of this, but if it does happen, you get a higher mortality rate initially, because we know immunity to it,” he said. 

The return of COVID

Prof O’Neill pointed out the survey also found that 15% of experts think COVID-19 will mutate into a “really nasty”, stronger virus. 

“The reason why there is a lower chance of that is [COVID-19] isn't mutating as fast as flu,” he said. 

“Secondly, we do have immunity now to COVID-19 of course, and that should protect us.” 

Prof O'Neill urged, however, it would be smart to start preparing for the next virus.