Ireland would not be facing ongoing coronavirus lockdowns if the test and trace system was working effectively, according to Professor Kingston Mills.

On Newstalk Breakfast this morning, the Trinity Professor of Immunology said the Johnson & Johnson vaccine will be “another great addition to the arsenal” but warned that restrictions are likely to be needed until “well into the summer.”

The Johnson & Johnson jab was yesterday submitted to the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for regulatory approval.

The EU regulator is aiming to announce a decision on the vaccine by the middle of next month.

Ireland is in line to receive 2.2 million doses with the first delivery expected in mid-April.

A vaccination centre at St Marys Hospital and Nursing Home in Phoenix Park, 15-02-2021. Image: Sasko Lazarov/RollingNews

Professor Mills said the country’s vulnerable population should be fully vaccinated by then.

“The numbers of hospitalisations should decrease but there are still hospitalisations among the younger group and that is where most of the transmission is right now,” he said. “It is among the younger age group not the older age groups.

“So, we would still see significant cases if we don’t have some restrictions.

“That is why the restrictions are probably going to have to last for a little bit longer. It will probably be well into the summer and I think they are saying September before the whole adult population is vaccinated so you are looking towards then.

“If the contact tracing, testing system worked effectively we wouldn’t need these massive lockdowns and people need to buy into the measures as well so it is a combination.”

Picture by: Frank Hoermann/SVEN SIMON/DPA/PA Images

He said Johnson and Johnson will be, “another great addition to the arsenal of vaccines that is now going to be available in Ireland and across Europe.”

“The big advantage to the Johnson and Johnson vaccine is that it is a single dose,” he said.

“We are due to get, I think, about 2.2 million doses of it. That means it is not going to do 1.1 million people like the other vaccines, it is actually going to do 2.2 million people – nearly half the population of Ireland.

“The other big advantage is that it can be stored at fridge temperature so it does not have the logistic issues around transport and storage that the other ones, especially the Pfizer one, have.

“So, this will be an ideal vaccine for GP surgeries.”

Variants of concern

Professor Mills said the one big blip on the horizon are the new variants of the disease that have been identified in recent months.

“We would be in a very, very good place if the variants had not emerged,” he said.

“The Kent/UK variant is more transmissible so that is a problem in terms of more people getting infected.

“From the vaccine perspective, it has a small but not a huge impact on the efficacy of the vaccine but the South African variant is a totally different story completely and similar to that the Brazilian variant and another one that emerged more recently in Bristol and Liverpool.

“Each of these are likely to affect vaccine effectiveness in the field.”

South Africa

He said Ireland is in a different position to South Africa, which has already decided not to use the AstraZeneca vaccine, as the variant is not currently circulating here.

“There were a couple of cases spotted here but they were contained so, as of now, we don’t have that,” he said.

“We are in a different position to SA in that we are largely dealing with the UK Kent variant and it seems that both of the vaccines we have will deal with that reasonably effectively.”