There have been 22 by-elections in the past thirty years. All bar one has been won by the opposition.

And that sole government victory – when Labour’s Patrick McNulty took a seat in Dublin West in October, 2011 – was effectively an extension of the general election result of seven months earlier.

By-elections tend to be used by voters to give the government of the day a bit of a jolt to keep them on their toes.

So in normal circumstances, with Fine Gael and Labour both struggling in the opinion polls, and with voters angered by the property tax and cuts to public sector pay, one would confidently expect an opposition victory in Wednesday’s by-election in Meath East.

Sadly, these are not normal circumstances. The by-election is being held because of the tragic death of the highly regarded junior minister, Shane McEntee, last December.

Understandably, the short campaign has been particularly low key and measured. Shane McEntee’s daughter Helen is hoping to take the seat held by her father since he himself won a by-election in 2005. Inevitably, there will be a massive sympathy factor at play.

The McEntee name is also hugely well known and respected in Meath – Shane was heavily involved in coaching GAA in the county and his brother Gerry was a key member of the Meath side that won back-to-back All-Irelands in 1987-88.

In those circumstances, it would be a major surprise if Fine Gael fails to hold the seat. Even if McEntee doesn’t top the poll, she is likely to attract transfers across the board and that justifies her odds of 6-4 on with the bookies.

Thomas Byrne’s relatively narrow odds of 11/10 meanwhile reflect the fact that this contest is essentially a two horse race. Byrne is a good candidate and Fianna Fail’s resurgence in recent opinion polls – allied to a traditionally strong vote in Meath (2011 aside) – means he certainly cannot be discounted.

The Fianna Fail vote will certainly be well up from the general election of two years ago when it came in at less than 20% in the constituency. But Byrne has a lot of ground to make up on Fine Gael, which won over 40% of the first preference vote in 2011. Given that many voters will still be angry with Fianna Fail, he may also struggle to attract transfers. It would be a huge coup for the party to win the seat, but a solid second place will confirm that Fianna Fail is on the way back.

Sinn Fein looks most likely to claim third place and could possibly even push Fianna Fail for second spot. Although it won less than 9% of the vote in the 2011 election here, Sinn Fein did win a seat in neighbouring Meath West and the party has a strong candidate in Darren O’Rourke. It will also benefit from the predicted collapse in support for the Labour party.

Labour’s Eoin Holmes odds of 40-1 are extraordinary. The party has a seat in the constituency with Dominic Hannigan and it was in this type of Dublin commuter belt constituency where Labour was so strong a couple of years back. It’s a reflection on how Labour is struggling to retain the support it attracted two years ago. Lacking Fine Gael’s traditional support base in the constituency, the party is certain to be hit hard by the recent Croke Park deal, the property tax and various cutbacks. Hannigan topped the poll with 21% of the vote in 2011 but Labour will be doing well to get into double figures this time.

There are a total of eleven candidates in the field, including Seamus McDonagh of the Workers’ Party and the Greens’ Sean O Buachalla, but all eyes will be on the performance of the big four.

The constituency is a mixture of urban and rural areas but turnout is expected to be low generally and particularly in the urban housing estates.

I’m calling it as Fine Gael taking the seat, followed by Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein and Labour in that order. Labour’s fourth place should make for some interesting times in government ahead.