The extra 50 cent duty on wine was one of the most controversial adjustments announced for Budget 2014. Wine drinkers may be facing another shock, however, with new figures suggesting a full global shortage might be imminent.

Morgan Stanley Research, as reported by Quartz, has analysed currently available figures, and suggests that global win supply is not matching demand, and the problem is only likely to get worse. While there are still around 3 billion cases of wine produced every year, last year saw a shortage of 300 million cases. Although 2012 was an exceptionally tough grape harvest in many key wine producing regions, and 2013 so far has yielded the highest crops in seven years, the research team suggests such situations are an indicator of things to come.

This is a sharp contrast to the early and mid 2000s, when more wine was being produced than consumed. Recent years have only seen wine's popularity increase, especially in areas like China where more and more people can afford the often expensive grape beverage. Meanwhile, the amount of "areas under vine" - i.e. wind producing land - has decreased significantly in the three largest wine producing countries (Spain, Italy and France). China itself has increased production, and yields in the US and other minor wine producing countries have remained consistent. However, none of this has managed to fill the gap caused by declines elsewhere.

The report states "data suggests there may be insufficient supply to meet demand in coming years, as current vintages are released”. Wine enthusiasts, then, should enjoy their relatively easy access to the red and white stuff while it lasts, even with that 50c on top.