Simon Harris’ popularity lies in the fact that there is “nothing grandiose about him”, Ivan Yates has claimed. 

Since Mr Harris took over as Taoiseach, Fine Gael has enjoyed a surge in the polls and party strategists are feeling bullish about their election prospects. 

On The Pat Kenny Show, Mr Yates, who was a Fine Gael TD for many years, said that voters are responding to the perceived ordinariness of the new Taoiseach. 

“I would always say that his biggest appeal is that his father, Bart, was a barman and now drives a taxi,” Mr Yates said.

“So, nothing grandiose about him - his mother is a Special Needs Assistant.” 

Mr Yates said this “makes him grounded” despite the fact he is a career politician, having been elected a TD at the age of 24. 

“He’s never had a proper job other than this job,” he added. 

“He dropped out of college and went into politics, his rise has been exocet.” 

Taoiseach Simon Harris and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Picture by: Alamy.com

Bauer Media Political Correspondent Seán Defoe agreed that Leo Varadkar’s resignation has given Fine Gael a chance to reset its relationship with voters. 

“The thing that makes me think that people are buying into the Harris stuff is that when I talk to people who aren’t involved in politics, they always say one or two things,” he said. 

“They say, ‘God, he’s very busy, he’s a very busy man, I hope he’s not too wrecked.’ 

“The energy is there, it’s on social media the whole time, he’s everywhere. 

“Or else, they just seem to kind of like him - he just has this appeal to people who are outside of politics.” 

Election 2024

In 2020, Fine Gael came in third place with 21% of the vote and 35 seats. 

Four-years on, polls suggest they are in first place ahead of both Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil - leading to speculation Fine Gael will gain seats. 

“If you look at the big parties, I think anything above 40 is considered doing well,” Mr Defoe said. 

“45 would be considered a good day; so 42 to 45 is where I had Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil landing into based on the current polls at the minute.

“That’s what success looks like, there or thereabouts with a majority - which is going to be 88 in the new Dáil.” 

Still, even if Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil win a majority of the seats in the next Dáil, they might seek out a third party to form a coalition with. 

“I still think they’ll need a bare majority and even if they got a bare majority, they would want a third partner - someone to kick,” Mr Defoe said. 

It is expected polling will take place on November 29th.

Ivan Yates and Seán Defoe will have more detailed analysis on their new podcast, Calling It, which involves a deep dive into every constituency ahead of the election.

You can listen back here:

Main image: Split of Ivan Yates and Simon Harris. Pictures by: Newstalk and Alamy.com