The Labour party vote declined dramatically in the recent local and European elections and now it appears likely that most of their 34 TDs will lose their seats in the coming general election.

Labour has lost support because of its failure to fulfil promises made in the 2011 election that it would ameliorate the more right-wing policies of Fine Gael. The Labour Party has facilitated – along with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael – a form of re-colonisation of Ireland. This time by the European Central Bank, large corporations and a wealthy, financial elite.

This is evident in the Government’s decision to dramatically reduce the funding for vital public services such as health and housing, communities, lone parents, carers, and disability services in order to ensure the repayment of bondholders and French and German banks who had gambled on the Irish property market and the stability of the European financial system.

It is also evident from the fact that the super wealthy and multinational corporations were not asked to shoulder any of the austerity burden. The Labour Party was founded by James Connolly and Jim Larkin to create a Republic that, as outlined in the 1916 Proclamation, “guarantees...equal rights and equal opportunities to all its citizens” but Labour has become synonymous with austerity and neo-liberalism.

The policies of the last two governments have resulted in the child poverty rate increasing from 18 percent in 2008 to 28 percent and youth unemployment rose from 8.8 percent to 31 percent in 2012 and would be even higher were it not for the forced emigration of thousands of young Irish people.

The issue of underemployment and unemployment is also more severe than the current 11 percent unemployment figure released earlier this week. While 70 percent of the working age population was employed in 2008 that is now down to a staggering 58.6 percent. This is the seventh lowest among 34 OECD countries. We also have the second highest proportion of low-paying jobs in the OECD with over a fifth of the workforce earning under less than €23,641. Analysis by NERI shows that half of all earners had a gross income of less than €30,000 per annum. Nearly half the population also is eligible to a medical card.

Choked 'low income' majority

These figures show that rather than a squeezed ‘middle’ in Ireland there is a choked ‘low income’ majority. The Government’s recent reduction in the top rate of tax benefitted just 17 percent of earners who are the only ones paying tax at the higher rate. Connolly’s writings are interesting for their relevance to today. He wrote, “After Ireland is free, says the patriot who won't touch Socialism, we will protect all classes, and if you won't pay your rent you will be evicted same as now. But the evicting party, under command of the sheriff, will wear green uniforms and the Harp without the Crown, and the warrant turning you out on the roadside will be stamped with the arms of the Irish Republic.”

And so we have seen a huge swing in working class and lower income areas away from Labour (and Fianna Fáil as a result of their role in the crisis) to Sinn Féin, the socialist Left and Independents.

Across Europe there is a similar pattern in countries affected by bailouts and austerity such as Greece and Spain. For example, Podemos in Spain is only a year old and is challenging to be the largest party there. They are representing a ‘new-left’ politics based on a critique of austerity, the failure of Europe to protect the crisis countries, supporting local democracy and empowerment by giving power back to the people from corporate interests and bond markets, a greater role for public services and improved workers’ rights.

There is the potential for such a new party to emerge in Ireland given the extent of the current crisis and new politics of protest. There is also the potential to do what Labour has failed to do - which is to form a broad Left government. The experience of Labour and the Greens highlight that it is pointless for ‘left’ parties to support larger right wing parties in government. Unless the Left can get a majority support for an alternative policy programme then it is counterproductive to go into government.

A citizens' government

Since the foundation of the state, Ireland has always been led by one of the two centre-Right parties (FF or FG). But now there is a real possibility of a left, or using more modern and open language, a ‘citizens’ government’ of equality and social justice. Communities, ordinary citizens, and smaller trade unions, in alliance with the left parties in the water protests have created the biggest popular movement in Irish history.

Most significantly, the Right to Water campaign has shown that the Left and anti-establishment groups, so often caricatured by their division, can work together. While some commentators argue that Ireland needs a new conservative party like the Reform Alliance, the Irish water protests suggest otherwise.

The protests are clearly anti-austerity, anti-privatisation and pro-investment in public services, for local democracy, people power, for fairness and equality, for standing up to Europe on the bank debt, and for social justice. It is accurate to describe them as articulating a demand for a ‘New Republic’ that is built upon the original Proclamation of a Republic of equality.

This is much closer to the broad Left than a new right-wing party. However, if the Left, Independents, unions, community groups and outraged citizens do not create a new party then it is likely the anti-establishment sentiment will be usurped by the Reform Alliance or a new Progressive Democrats.

Sinn Féin abú?

What Sinn Féin decides to do will also be very significant. Will it declare a clear intention to provide a left government or will it leave open the possibility of continuing the Labour tradition of maintaining the status quo through coalition with Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil? Will the small socialist parties of the ULA decide to remain parties of permanent opposition or support a new left government?

The numbers suggest that in the next General Election Sinn Féin could get 45 seats, smaller socialist parties and the Greens 15 seats, and, a new independent left party (launched using language that could connect with the majority such as ‘New Republic’, ‘Equality, Community and Social Justice’) could win 20 seats or more.

The next General Election, therefore, could be a historic one whereby the people of Ireland vote for a left government. If this does become a possibility in the coming months we will see the ‘great and good’ of the Irish elite using the media to make the case why the economy will be ‘wrecked’ as  bond markets won’t lend to us and corporations will leave.

But the fact is that other countries with left governments, higher corporation tax rates and public spending have much more successful economies than ours with huge multinational investment and borrow from the markets.

Ultimately this will be decided by the choked ‘working poor’ majority whether they vote for the so-called ‘national interest’ strategy that has resulted in social concerns, workers rights, public services, emigration and poverty being deprioritised in the interests of ‘national development’.

The interesting thing about the election is that it could offer the greatest chance to get a deal from Europe on our unsustainable (and unjust) debt. The last two governments played the ‘good child’ of the class and made no real progress on this. Electing a Left government with a mandate and willingness to demand a significant debt write-down will be much more likely to achieve this.

So will a new party of social justice emerge? Will Sinn Féin, the socialist left and independents put aside their differences and overcome Brendan Behan’s curse about the Irish left that the first item on the agenda is always the ‘split’? Will the majority of the Irish people vote for an alternative government? It’s all very possible.

Dr Rory Hearne is a Lecturer in Political and Economic Geography at the Department of Geography, Maynooth University