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Poll: Sinn Féin and Fine Gael neck-and-neck in major slump

Sinn Féin’s support has plummeted as it becomes tied with Fine Gael for the most popular polit...
Ellen Kenny
Ellen Kenny

08.54 2 Jun 2024


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Poll: Sinn Féin and Fine Gael...

Poll: Sinn Féin and Fine Gael neck-and-neck in major slump

Ellen Kenny
Ellen Kenny

08.54 2 Jun 2024


Share this article


Sinn Féin’s support has plummeted as it becomes tied with Fine Gael for the most popular political party, according to the latest poll. 

The latest Irish Independent/Ireland Thinks poll saw a 7% drop in support for Sinn Féin, going down to 22% of first preference support. 

Meanwhile, Fine Gael saw a three-point rise, also reaching 22% of all first preference votes ahead of local and European elections. 

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This is the first time in recent years Fine Gael has topped the poll after Sinn Féin has dominated public support since the 2020 general election. 

It is also a 15-point drop in Sinn Féin’s record high of support in October 2022 when the party reached 37% of voter support. 

Taoiseach Simon Harris during a press conference outside Stormont Castle in Northern Ireland, 3-5-24. Taoiseach Simon Harris during a press conference outside Stormont Castle in Northern Ireland, 3-5-24. Image: PA Images / Alamy

The most popular option for voters ahead of next week’s elections is Independent/others who have increased support by four points to 23%. 

Fianna Fáil increased by one point to 17%, while the Green Party remains unchanged at 4% support. 

The Social Democrats dropped by one point to 5%, while Labour and Aontú both remain unchanged at 3% each. 

Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris is also now neck and neck with Tánaiste Micheál Martin with both earning a 48% approval rating based on a scale out of 10. 

Mary Lou McDonald saw a slump once again with 36% approval, a four-point drop, while other party leaders remain largely unchanged. 

Poll support for Europe

According to the polls, Independent candidates are likely to take a seat in each of the three European constituencies. 

Sinn Féin also remains well-positioned to win three seats - but it is in a tight battle in Midlands-Northwest 

Fine Gael MEP Maria Walsh has the highest support in the Midlands-Northwest at 12.5%, followed by Independent Luke Ming Flanagan and Fianna Fáil’s Barry Cowen. 

In Dublin, Fine Gael’s Regina Doherty topped with 15%, followed by Fianna Fáil’s Barry Andrews and Sinn Féin MEP Lynn Boylan. 

Fine Gael also has the highest support in the South constituency, with Seán Kelly earning 18.5%. 

Billy Kelleher of Fianna Fáil earned 14.4% while Independent Michael McNamara earned 9.9% of votes. 

The poll was taken between Thursday and Friday with a sample size of 1,770. 


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