Irish people need to “keep our shoulders to the wheel” for the next six weeks to get cases below 100 per day, according to Professor Philip Nolan.

On The Hard Shoulder this evening, the Chair of the COVID-19 modelling group said there is “no magic number” for easing restrictions but warned that case numbers need to be, “really quite low before we can take any risks whatsoever.”

“We think we will be somewhere between 200 and 400 cases a day as we go into March,” he said. “Probably somewhere in the middle of that range.”

“As we get to the middle of March, around St Patrick’s Day, you could be approaching the 100 cases a day mark, so I think we need to keep our shoulders to the wheel probably for the next six weeks.”

Restrictions

Professor Nolan was speaking after the Taoiseach Micheál Martin warned that a “high level of restrictions” was likely to remain in place until Easter.

Meanwhile, the Tánaiste Leo Varadkar suggested golf, non-contact training and outdoor retail could return in early March.

“I wouldn’t want to prejudge any decision of Government and I am not saying we can’t do anything in the next six weeks,” he said.

“There may be some priority activities that Government would choose to support their resumptions.

“I am thinking of education and I am particularly thinking about the sorts of things that are good. These are hard times and I am very conscious of people’s mental health and resilience through this.”

5km limit

He said an increase to the 5km travel limit was a “reasonable suggestion” – but warned that people must be extremely careful about taking any easing of restrictions as an invitation to start mixing indoors.

“I am enormously supportive of people getting out for a walk together outdoors and I appreciate that the 5km constraint is an issue,” he said.

He said the easing of outdoor restrictions is “exactly what NPHET and Government should be considering.”

“What are the things we can get back to doing that are important to us?” he asked.

“The education of our children, the protection of our vulnerable and our collective resilience and mental health.

“So, it is quite reasonable for Government to be thinking about how can we give people more room to recreate, to exercise, to socialise outdoors safely and I am sure they will consider those.

“I am just making the point that we shouldn’t misinterpret any liberalisation as tacit permission to start mixing indoors. We are going to need to be really careful about that.”

"Huge achievement"

Professor Nolan said the reduction in cases numbers over January and February has been a “huge achievement on the part of the Irish people,” and said getting case numbers down around 100 would offer us “real options as a society.”

“Options that we have to be very careful about how we use but options nonetheless to ease some of the more problematic restrictions we are operating under now,” he said.