Travel expert Eoghan Corry has been looking at the pros and cons of any potential summer holiday bookings.
He told The Hard Shoulder the situation is really no clearer than it was last March.
He also said that a lot of vouchers, given to people who deferred last year, are coming up for payment.
"There are about 400,000 deferred holidays, there are also a lot of vouchers.
"Some of them will be coming up out for payment this month... they were nine month vouchers operated during the summer.
"There's about €17m in play with those".
He said this includes not just the average family holiday, but weddings "with very complicated bookings" who pushed their travel out to 2021.
"In fact we're probably looking into three months of uncertainty, which is as great as we experienced at the beginning of this cycle - March/April."
He said 30% of holiday sales are done in January, but many companies are looking to later in the year.
"Holiday companies and airlines are pushing that back, they're hoping things will be in a better shape by March/April.
"We don't have a lot of time to save the 2021 season".
What about refunds?
In terms of consumer rights, he said people are in the same boat as last year.
"If the flight takes off, you don't get a refund - it's your decision not to travel.
"If the airline cancels the flight, you do get a refund".
While the EU261 directive gives airlines a deadline of around two weeks beforehand to cancel a flight.
Silhouette of an airplane against a sunburst and blue sky, 13-05-2018. Image: Michael Interisano/Design Pics via ZUMA WireBut the need for both inbound and outbound tests on people is also affecting bookings.
Eoghan said passenger numbers could be a factor, as the PCR tests are "having the effect of reducing the advanced bookings to unprecedently low levels."
"That could mean flights cancelled, so people will be getting back their money on one part of the trip and ending up trying to scramble for the rest with hotels and transfers".
Tests before travel
Irish people need to have a negative coronavirus test ahead of travel to Spain, Germany and the US.
While Portugal, France and Italy are still letting Irish people in, Eoghan said this has "got very complicated" owing to expensive PCR tests.
He explained: "If you're bringing in a family of four - and we have very, very expensive PCR testing particularly in Ireland, it can cost €180 ahead.
"That means that what seemed like a good idea when you booked it or moved it forward is no longer viable.
"And if the plane takes off, you're not entitled to a refund".
He said different testing regimes are hurting confidence across Europe.
"There's no end date to it, Kieran, which is a big criticism.
"Once you introduce a policy like that it's very difficult for a politician to start saying 'It's safe enough to move' - because obviously if numbers go up they then get abraded for it"
He added that talk about planning for holidays "is now looking even more uncertain".
