Sinn Féin may be able to gain seats in the General Election, while Fine Gael may face pushback on economic issues, according to a Bauer Media political correspondent.
Election campaigns began in full-swing today after the dissolution of the 33rd Dáil on Friday.
Bauer Media political correspondent Seán Defoe told The Anton Savage Show that expected outcomes rarely become a reality in elections.
“In many ways what's been happening over the last couple of weeks really reminds me 2020 – when people were told going in, 'Well, it's definitely going to be Taoiseach Leo Varadker or Taoiseach Micheál Martin and that's it',” he said.
“People don't like being told who they're going to vote for and what an outcome is going to be.
"It is very rare that the expected outcome heading into an election ends up being the one that comes out.”
Sinn Féin
Mr Defoe said that despite recent party controversies, Sinn Féin may be able to gain seats with their campaign.
“There is also the sense from Sinn Fein that they are more confident than you would expect them to be,” he said.
“[This is] due to a number of factors – one being that the controversies are out there and they think they've kind of run their course.
“Now we get into a campaign where you talk about the issues – and on the issues they're pretty solid.”
Economic issues
Parties that have recently been in Government are likely to face some pushback when making economic promises – especially Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, according to Mr Defoe.
“Part of the problem for the Government parties is anything they promised, people are going to look at and say: ‘You just spent €110 billion in a budget, why didn't you do it then? You've been in government for 13 years, why didn't you do it then?’” he said.
“All these new ideas fall a little bit flat.”
VAT rate
This will be especially noticeable in regard to Fine Gael’s recent promise to reduce the VAT rate in the catering and entertainment sector, according to Mr Defoe.
“One of the big things that I think will catch a lot of businesses eyes is [Fine Gael] are going to promise to reduce the 13 and a half per cent VAT rate to 11% on food, catering, entertainment and hairdressing services,” Mr Defoe said.
“Basically the thing that the industry was absolutely crying out for in advance of the budget, that they didn't do in the budget.
“Now they're promising that they will do it along with extra supports.”
Apart from the three main parties, Mr Defoe said that Labour could potentially see some gains if it organises itself correctly, while the Greens will likely struggle to hold onto seats, especially outside of Dublin.
Seán Defoe and Ivan Yates will be covering the election in their new podcast 'Calling It', with new episodes out now.