Ireland is likely to incur “severe” EU fines because the Government is on track to miss its climate targets, the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council has warned. 

The Government has signed up to the EU's Effort Sharing Regulations, which require a 42% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. 

The Environmental Protection Agency has forecast that the State will miss this target by some margin, with greenhouse gas emissions predicted to fall by only 9% on 2005 levels. 

Two wind turbines against the backdrop of a rising sun. Image: Ian Dyball / Alamy Stock Photo

In this scenario, Ireland risks fines as high as €26 billion. 

On Newstalk Breakfast, Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Chair Seamus Coffey said the Government might try and purchase carbon credits from countries that meet their targets. 

“From an Irish perspective, we’re on track to miss our emission targets across a wide range of areas,” he said.  

“Whether it’s overall emissions, emissions linked to landuse and the production of renewable energy. 

“If we miss our targets, what are the fiscal implications of that? We have to buy these offsetting credits from countries that have hit their targets - like Spain, Portugal and Greece.” 

A man installing rooftop solar panels. Picture by: Radharc Images / Alamy

Mr Coffeey said the cost of these credits will be “very, very high” as a large number of countries will be looking to purchases them. 

“If you look at it on a per person basis, a per capita basis, we are on track to be the worst in the EU,” he said. 

“That means then the implications for the public finances are likely to be the most severe in the EU. 

“We are a bit of an outlier; yes, we are a small country. 

“In overall terms, our emissions aren’t huge when it comes to EU and global terms. 

“But if you look at the way this is constructed, the way we’ve agreed to it, on a per person basis, relative to our size, we’re likely to be the worst in the EU.” 

Flags of EU member states. Picture by: Agencja Fotograficzna Caro / Alamy

Last week, Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary said Ireland should not concern itself about meeting climate targets as, “Every Government across Europe will miss those targets.”

However, Mr Coffey said that is not the case. 

“Some countries have actually met and exceeded their targets,” he said. 

“Countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal, they would say all countries have signed up to this and if they have credits to [sell], they’ll be looking for other countries to purchase them.” 

Mr Coffey said Ireland can “sit on our hands” and pay the fines, or significantly increase investment in renewables and other green projects. 

“We could spend the money now and reduce our own [emissions] and then get the benefit of, perhaps, an improved electricity network, a reduction in emissions from land use, a greater transition to electric vehicles,” he said.  

The Government is committed to reaching net zero emissions by 2050.

Main image: Wind turbines in Conamara. Picture by: RollingNews.ie.