While a large surplus is expected in Budget 2024, it’s important to remember the “transience” of corporation tax. 

That’s according to Irish Times Political Editor Pat Leahy ahead of Budget 2024 on October 10th. 

There are ongoing suggestions Budget 2024 will be a “giveaway Budget” with increased social welfare, tax credits, and tax cuts. 

Mr Leahy told On the Record the Government will have to be careful when it comes to spending increases based on tax revenue. 

“The Finance Minister and Public Expenditure Minister have been warning about the transience of corporation tax revenues for some time,” he said. 

“There's no doubt that there's going to be a very big surplus this year, [but] you won't have this massive overshoot of corporation tax revenues this year.” 

'Lastminute.com'

Mr Leahy said most predictions and models suggest there will be a tax break for small landlords. 

“That was actually flagged by the Government itself some time back,” he said. 

“Exactly how it's going to operate isn't clear... it’s likely the final design of the scheme – allocations, how much it costs and so forth – hasn't been agreed. 

“All Budgets are a bit of lastminute.com when you get to the last weekend beforehand - this one seems especially so.” 

Energy tax credit  

Discussions around energy tax credit, for example, are still going to happen up until October 9th, according to Mr Leahy. 

“There were meetings yesterday, there's further meetings today, it may run even into tomorrow before that is finally decided,” he said. 

“The Independent reported something between €300 to €400 [tax credits] on electricity bills between now and next spring. 

“Whether that'll be three €100s or two €150s and how it works, that's to be settled today.” 

Social welfare increases

It has also been suggested social welfare payments will be increased by €12 per week – but Mr Leahy said this is yet another last-minute decision. 

“Because they're so expensive, they tend to be the last thing or almost the last thing that ministers agree on,” he said. 

“I was told was late last week that it was likely that the one-off payments will be agreed by ministers and the leaders of the coalition parties on Saturday night. 

“That would clear the way then that they would have a clear pot of money that they can divide between social welfare increases. 

Overall, Mr Leahy predicted Budget 2024 will have “two types of giveaways”. 

“There will be the once-off ones and there will be the ones that are repeated every year that go into the spending base,” he said. 

Listen back to Mr Leahy, as well as Focus Ireland CEO Pat Dennigan and Economics Professor John Fitzgerald, here: