It is ‘almost certain’ that Trump will pull the US out of the Paris Agreement after taking office, according to Obama’s former climate negotiator.

The United States should expect to see progress on climate change stall significantly under Donald Trump during his second term as president.

Former climate negotiator for the Obama administration Todd Stern told the Futureproof podcast that many countries will be disappointed with Trump's tactics.

“It would be shocking if Trump did not pull us out of Paris again,” he said.

“It’s almost certain that he will - he basically has said he will.

“So, I think countries now are going to be obviously upset and disappointed because, of course, they’ve already been through this.”

Global emissions

However, Mr Stern pointed out that the US is still further ahead in its emissions reductions than some other participants.

“China right now is 30% of global emissions – the US is 13 or 14%,” he said.

“I think you will see a lot of [climate] action – a great deal of action – continue in the United States.

“For one thing, I don’t think that Trump is going to be able – if he even tried – to get out of most of the most important elements of the so-called ‘IRA’ (Inflation Reduction Act), which is our big climate bill from a couple of years ago."

Expected progress

Mr Stern said that he expects climate emissions will still be reduced over the course of Trump’s presidency, but at a much slower rate than would have been seen under a Democratic administration.

“My guess is the United States’s emissions will continue to go down,” he said.

“Not down as fast as they would have if it were president Harris compared to president Trump – because policy matters, and you won’t get any good policy from Trump.”

Mr Stern said that the impacts of climate change are coming at us faster then was predicted, and that the pressure to reduce emissions will only continue to increase.

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