The Government must build up to 50,000 houses a year to match population growth, according to the ESRI. 

The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) published its report estimating the housing needed based on different population growth scenarios. 

Across 12 possible scenarios, the ESRI estimated the Government must build 44,000 homes between 2023 and 2030 and 40,000 between 2030 and 2040. 

In the ‘baseline’ scenario, where the population is expected to grow by 922,000 by 2040, the report said 38,000 to 50,000 houses per year will be needed, depending on household sizes. 

The ESRI noted changing migration will also affect population growth and the houses needed. 

In a ‘high migration scenario’, the estimates range from around 41,000 to 53,000 per year – while in a 'low migration scenario', the estimates range from 35,000 to 47,000 per year. 

The report predicted population growth in all regions - but the east and midlands are expected to see higher growth than the north, west and south. 

Professor Paul Egan said housing demand projections are “sensitive to assumptions” such as migration, household size and the “obsolescence rate of the housing stock”. 

“Owing to the uncertainty in any projection exercise, the research considers a range of assumptions,” he said. 

“It should also be noted that all scenarios relate to future demographic housing demand and do not factor in current pent-up demand.” 

Housing targets

The report was funded by the Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage. 

Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien said the research is “a valuable contribution to our understanding of future housing demand”. 

He said the Department will use the report to provide an “overall average housing delivery target” that will take effect from next year. 

The Government's preliminary average target is currently 50,000 houses per year. 

“The targets we have under Housing for All have only ever provided a base of which to work from, they’ve never been a limitation to our ambition as has been proven twice now with overall targets being surpassed in both 2022 and 2023,” Mr O’Brien said. 

Over 110,000 houses have been built since 2020 – although a record-high 14,159 people were in homeless accommodation in May 2024.