Things got pretty frantic in Leinster House this morning – and that’s putting it lightly. 

I got a text message out of the blue: “There’s going to be an announcement at 12pm. I’m told it’s big”.

What could it be? Was a General Election about to be called?

It couldn’t be that though, the timings just wouldn’t work out. If a General Election was called today, it would have to be held around April 11th – 19th – so that made that a non-runner.

I then got word that a podium had been set up in the courtyard outside Government Buildings.

This was going to be an address to the nation and it was only the Taoiseach Leo Varadkar who could be making it.

I called as many political advisors as I could, but every single person I called had their phones off.

I ran down to the canteen in Leinster House, where nobody had a clue what was going on, but everyone was making the same guess – ‘He has to be stepping down.’

Just after midday, Leo Varadkar walked out of Government Buildings flanked by his party colleagues.

He was resigning as Fine Gael leader with immediate effect and would step down as Taoiseach as soon as a new party leader is elected.

It means his successor will have a full two month run-in to the Local and European Elections in June.

He said his reasons for stepping down were both personal and political.

“I believe the re-election of this three-party Government will be the right thing for the future of our country," he said.

"After careful consideration - and some soul searching - I believe a new Taoiseach will be better placed than me to achieve that.”

Reporters gather outside Leinster House for Leo Varadkar’s speech. Image: Rory Walsh/Newstalk

Leo Varadkar was emotional. It did not feel like he wanted to step down.

The Government did suffer humiliating twin referendum defeats just over a week ago.

Fine Gael are down in the polls and almost a dozen Fine Gael TD’s who were elected in the 2020 General Election have announced they will not contest the next election – that’s almost 30% of all the party’s elected TDs.

'Did the pin finally drop?'

So was the writing on the wall?

Did the pin finally drop for Leo Varadkar that his party were heading for a drubbing at the polls? And can a new leader rally more support from the public, inspiring Fine Gael to a bigger victory than it could have expected under Leo’s leadership?

These are all questions the coming months will answer.

Leo Varadkar announces his resignation outside Leinster House, 20-03-2024. Image: Leah Farrell/RollingNews

But for now, who will replace Leo Varadkar?

Is his previous rival for the party presidency Simon Coveney in line for a glorious return?

Is his long-term ally Simon Harris now primed to step out into the sunlight?

What about Paschal Donohoe, Helen McEntee or Heather Humphries?

Leadership

If the bookies are to be believed there is one hot favourite for the role – with Simon Harris way out in front.

Coming up behind him are Coveney and Donohoe, neck and neck, with Helen McEntee next in line and Heather Humphries hanging in there as something of a long shot.

The big question now is, will any of them want to lead the party into an election?

It might just be too late to reverse the party’s slide.