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Will an asteroid hit Earth in 2032?

It has been a slow fortnight in space news, with NASA only now returning to full operations follo...
Newstalk
Newstalk

10.04 18 Oct 2013


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Will an asteroid hit Earth in...

Will an asteroid hit Earth in 2032?

Newstalk
Newstalk

10.04 18 Oct 2013


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It has been a slow fortnight in space news, with NASA only now returning to full operations following their temporary shutdown. One group of Ukrainian astronomers has picked up some of the slack, identifying an asteroid with a slim but comparatively noteworthy possibility of hitting Earth in 19 years time.

As reported by Russian news site Ria, the asteroid in question has been dubbed 2013 TV135, and is described as a 'minor planet'. It was initially spotted last weekend, and its existence has since been confirmed by several international astronomers.

If it does hit our planet, the collision would have 50 times the power of the world's largest nuclear bomb. That would not necessarily mark an instantly apocalyptic event, but would be catastrophic for the impact site and surrounding area. It could possibly also alter the Earth's climate, as many scientists argue was a likely cause of the dinosaurs' extinction. Astronomers will have a better opportunity to measure the impact risk in 2028, and will be hoping to carry out more accurate analysis of the data in the meantime. 

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Luckily, the currently estimated danger from TV135 is minimal, and has been initially determined as a 1 in 63,000 chance. This gives it a 1 out of 10 rating on the 'Torino Scale', a measurement system set up to analyse the risk from celestial objects. Level 1 is described as posing "no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern". 

Only one other object - 2007 VK184 - is currently rated as 1 on the Torino Scale, with no higher ratings in place. Much smaller than the newly discovered asteroid, VK184 is only 130 meters wide, although with a significantly higher 1 in 1,820 chance of colliding with Earth in June 2048. Hopefully that will give scientists a chance to develop a defense system, although the LA Times cites one Russian expert who argues such a system will not be feasible for at least 50 years.


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