In a world we are forced to share with such things as Geordie Shore and Mylie Cyrus, I find it wonderfully reassuring to know that this weekend; we all have an escape to the extravagant.
Class, opulence and perhaps even decadence will be the theme in Paris this weekend where the best flat race in the world will take place – the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Even saying the name aloud feels lavish, as the elegant six-syllable title infers prestige.
Close to a billion people will tune in; 60,000 spectators will attend; and over 500 scribes will arrive to report on the season’s crescendo. The parade ring at the Longchamp track will be brimming with the runners’ regal owners, hoping that their shining silks will be the first ones past the post. Meanwhile I will be happily parked up on my couch, ready to savour the proceedings.
The race is run over a mile and a half, and the calibre of the field contending this year’s event is staggering. All horses bar Ocavango, priced at 25/1 or less, have achieved a Group/Grade One success and when attempting to count their collective top-level tally, I tired after twenty. While this renewal may not have a yet historic horse, such as previous victor Sea The Stars, the standard of competition could be the ingredient that makes it one of the best in living memory.
The market is headed by last year’s race tragedy, the Japanese horse, Orfevre. A remarkable horse, he has seemingly banished his foible of suddenly deciding to take the scenic route to the finishing line, that twelve months ago caused his defeat.
His status in the betting is unsurprising as he showed both good behaviour and acceleration in the Prix Foy but I remain unconvinced. That trial race, which hasn't produced an Arc winner since I was knee-high (poetic licence), was the slowest run of three that day. He had a perfect position to prevent any mental distractions and one should be reminded that horses running in the Arc for a second time don’t have an encouraging record.
On that same day Orfevre beat his rivals, Kizuna did so less convincingly, defeating Ruler Of The World by a short head in the Prix Niel - neither of whom have made my shortlist.
In my opinion, the best Arc trial winner that day was the unbeaten filly Treve. Analysis of the clock suggests the same but it was her bravery and speed which saw her swiftly swat away danger in running that really caught my attention.
It was a beautiful ride from Frankie Dettori whose run of bad luck continued on Wednesday when he suffered an ankle injury ruling him out of the race on Sunday. However, his replacement, Thierry Jarnet guided her to victory on her first three starts and I believe she remains in capable hands.
Treve is a light-framed filly, recently purchased by His Excellency Sheikh Joaan Al Thani for more than a pretty penny, I’m sure. But she is stunning to watch and although Sunday will be her début against the opposite sex, I expect it will be a winning one.
Her trainer Criquette Head-Maarek originally planned to defer her run in this race until next year, probably due to her slighter frame. For one reason or another however, either due to the new owner’s preference, or perhaps her physical progression, the decision to supplement her for Sunday was made.
As a three year old filly, she will carry just 8st8lbs. This is a massive advantage, considering older colts must shoulder 9 stone 5lbs. Unlike the current favourite, she looks the type to get herself out of trouble rather into it, of which there is usually plenty in the Arc.
Novellist seemed to make a mockery of his competition in the KingGeorge VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot when gliding to a five length victory but his subsequent run has cast doubts on his credentials this weekend.
Prince King Abdullah will have been disheartened to hear of the rain forecast as his representative Flintshire, has a definite preference for good ground according to trainer Andre Fabre. Irish hopeful and Ladbrokes St Leger winner Leading Light has been supplement for €100,000 but that Classic has not produced an Arc winner since Alleged in 1978.
With those question marks hanging over the opposition to my selection, I am confident in my choice of Treve and while the various Kings and Princes roar their horses home, I think she will be the queen who steals this year’s crown. If she gets a favourable draw, I’m going all in and maybe I’ll win enough to start a little kingdom of my own!
